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University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium
Projections by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin indicate the state's peak of COVID-19 cases may have already passed. (Source: University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium)
There is a 64% chance that the COVID-19 peak has already passed in Texas, and a 99% chance it has passed across the U.S., according to the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. In a week, the chance that the peak has passed in Texas will increase to 89%.
The consortium used local caseload and death data, as well as cell phone GPS data, to develop its projections. The peak is defined as the day on which the model predicts the average daily death rate stops increasing.
The consortium's findings track with the projections of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The national peak in daily deaths from COVID-19 was a week ago, per the IHME, and in Texas it was six days ago.
Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told Austin City Council at a work session yesterday that while Austin is flattening the curve it remains unclear when the local peak will occur—or a second wave will arise.
"We've had factors change over the past two weeks that may impact or stretch out that peak, namely the reactivation of construction as well as the Easter holiday," he said. "We've heard anecdotally from a number of sources that a number of families have gotten together, there was still some activity that brought people together, so we're a bit concerned that we may see a little increase based upon that yet."
As of yesterday evening, Travis County has confirmed 1,232 COVID-19 cases and 27 deaths. Seventy-nine people in the 5-county region are hospitalized, with 34 in intensive care and 18 on ventilators.
Amid these projections and efforts by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to reopen businesses across the state, Dr. Escott urged continued vigilance.
"As we start to roll things out and look to roll out additional business in the future as far as reopening [the economy] is concerned, the public has got to understand this should not at all be seen as an indication that we're over this," he said during the work session. "The peak is generated by us, by our decisions as individuals, as a community."
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With citywide attention on police brutality, Austin activists see moment to strike on defunding APD
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(Poli Pix Co. LLC/Shutterstock)
As widespread protests against police violence continue in Austin and around the country, local activist groups are pushing for what they've wanted for years but didn't feel they could successfully demand: defunding the Austin Police Department. And people seem to be paying attention.
<p>Groups such as the Austin Justice Coalition have rallied their members to complete the city's budget survey and register to speak at City Council later today. More than 10,000 people have completed the survey, which is available through July 1, compared to less than 4,000 last year, a city spokesperson said. More than 600 people have registered to speak at the meeting, including 330 solely for the APD briefing and an item related to police funding.</p><p>AJC hosted its monthly general meeting on Zoom earlier this week, where its leadership called for the redistribution of police funding—which accounts for 40% of the city's general fund, or more than $400 million annually—to equity initiatives, marginalized communities and public health programs. </p><p>In previous years, activists have only gone so far as to ask the City Council to freeze the APD budget. Maya Pilgrim, a board member of Mama Sana Vibrant Woman—which is helping to push for defunding—said there's a good reason for that. "It was still an unpalatable position for, I think, some of our City Council members to take," she said.</p><p>But in the wake of APD Officer Christopher Taylor killing Mike Ramos, an unarmed black man, and the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis—as well as recent investigations into <a href="https://austonia.com/austin-police-investigation" target="_self">racism among APD's top ranks</a> and police violence against protesters that left two young men of color <a href="https://austonia.com/city/two-protesters-hit-with-apd-bean-bag-rounds-remain-hospitalized-one-in-critical-condition" target="_self">in the hospital</a>—activist groups feel there is an opportunity to ask for more. </p><p>"As we're seeing this collective outrage rise again, I'm seeing more openness in really interrogating how we spend our money as a city," Pilgrim said. "Our budget is a moral document." </p><p>Not everyone in Austin supports the movement to defund police.</p><p>Cary Roberts is the executive director of the Greater Austin Crime Commission, which promotes public safety planning. The organization will ask the city to maintain its commitment to APD funding, and in particular, to <a href="http://www.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=311126" target="_blank">a staffing plan</a> that outlines 30 new sworn officer positions as part of the Fiscal Year 2020-21 budget. </p><p>(The department currently has <a href="https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/05/public-safety-commission-postpones-budget-recommendation-calls-emergency-meeting/" target="_blank">162 vacant officer positions</a>. Its upcoming cadet class has been postponed due to a <a href="https://austonia.com/austin-police-investigation" target="_self">department-wide investigation, which includes a review of its training materials, prompted by allegations of racism</a>.) </p><p>"It's not an either-or. It's not mutually exclusive," Roberts said of improving police accountability and investing in police departments. "We can make the changes that need to be made while also making sure that we're keeping our families and neighborhoods safe." </p><p>During a virtual panel hosted by the Center for the Study of Race and Democracy at the University of Texas at Austin yesterday, Council Member Natasha Harper-Madison answered a question about calls to defund APD. "I think we should definitely be thinking wholeheartedly about how we can best use our resources," she said.</p><p>Last Sunday, Council Member Greg Casar <a href="https://twitter.com/GregCasar/status/1267132550755082240" target="_blank">tweeted</a> in support of reform: "Locally, organizers and activists need your help. They're organizing for transformational change at APD, from top to bottom. Everything is on the table, from personnel to training to use of force."</p>
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(Austonia staff)
Gov. Greg Abbott announced today he is moving the state to Phase III of reopening the economy after the coronavirus shutdown.
From the release:
<p><strong>Immediately</strong></p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>most businesses operating at 25% capacity can expand to 50%</li><li>bars may expand to 50% if patrons are seated</li><li>amusements parks that are in counties with less than 1,000 cases can open at 50% capacity</li><li>maximum table size at restaurants rises to 10</li></ul><p><strong>June 12</strong></p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>restaurants can move to 75% capacity</li><li>businesses at 25% can move to 50%</li><li>bars can move to 50%</li></ul><p><strong>June 19</strong></p><ul class="ee-ul"></ul><ul class="ee-ul"><li>other amusement parks can open at 50% capacity</li></ul>
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About 20% of classes at the University of Texas at Austin will be taught exclusively online this fall, The Texas Tribune reports, and in-person classes will be limited to 40% of classroom capacity.
<p style="margin-left: 20px;">Students who do not return to campus this fall can choose to take all their classes online. This remote-only option will have the same tuition rates as on-campus learning. To maintain social distancing, classrooms will limit capacity to 40%. Fall classes will be spread out and will take place between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. to reduce the number of students on-campus at any given time.</p><p>Interim UT-Austin President Jay Hartzell said in a letter, <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/03/texas-ut-austin-fall-online/" target="_blank">according to the Tribune</a>, that which courses will be taught online will be determined by faculty.</p>
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A member of the security team who was temporarily assigned to guard the Texas State Capitol has tested positive for COVID-19, the Austin American-Statesman reports:
<p style="margin-left: 20px;">The agency was informed overnight that a case of COVID-19 had been confirmed at the Capitol, where extra security has been stationed during recent protests over police brutality.</p>
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(Charlie L. Harper III)
There are two suspected cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children—a rare but serious condition believed to be associated with COVID-19—in Travis County, Austin Public Health Chief Epidemiologist Janet Pichette said during a virtual press conference earlier today.
<p>Dell Children's Medical Center <a href="https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/dell-childrens-reports-first-case-of-inflammatory-illness-related-to-covid-19" target="_blank">reported the county's first case </a>earlier this week.</p><p>Initial research by the CDC indicates that the syndrome appears four to six weeks after exposure to COVID-19 and that the majority of cases in <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cdc-confirms-link-of-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-to-covid-19-145-potential-cases-in-nyc/2421547/" target="_blank">New York City </a>occurred in children younger than 5 years old. </p><p>Symptoms include swelling of the hands and feet, redness in both eyes, rash and peeling of skin and swollen lymph nodes, according to Dell Children's. Dr. Sarmistha Hauger, chief of pediatric infectious diseases, said in a news release that early diagnosis can prevent serious complications, such as organ damage. </p><p>In addition to monitoring emerging cases of this disease, APH continues its pandemic response. </p><p>At the same press conference, Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott worried that COVID clusters may emerge following <a href="https://austonia.com/weekend-protest-austin-police-killings" target="_blank">this weekend's protests</a>. "We are concerned that we are going to see an uptick in cases related to that," he said, adding that the state's continued reopening may also contribute. </p>
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