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University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium
University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium

Projections by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin indicate the state's peak of COVID-19 cases may have already passed. (Source: University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium)

There is a 64% chance that the COVID-19 peak has already passed in Texas, and a 99% chance it has passed across the U.S., according to the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. In a week, the chance that the peak has passed in Texas will increase to 89%.


The consortium used local caseload and death data, as well as cell phone GPS data, to develop its projections. The peak is defined as the day on which the model predicts the average daily death rate stops increasing.

The consortium's findings track with the projections of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The national peak in daily deaths from COVID-19 was a week ago, per the IHME, and in Texas it was six days ago.

Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told Austin City Council at a work session yesterday that while Austin is flattening the curve it remains unclear when the local peak will occur—or a second wave will arise.

"We've had factors change over the past two weeks that may impact or stretch out that peak, namely the reactivation of construction as well as the Easter holiday," he said. "We've heard anecdotally from a number of sources that a number of families have gotten together, there was still some activity that brought people together, so we're a bit concerned that we may see a little increase based upon that yet."

As of yesterday evening, Travis County has confirmed 1,232 COVID-19 cases and 27 deaths. Seventy-nine people in the 5-county region are hospitalized, with 34 in intensive care and 18 on ventilators.

Amid these projections and efforts by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to reopen businesses across the state, Dr. Escott urged continued vigilance.

"As we start to roll things out and look to roll out additional business in the future as far as reopening [the economy] is concerned, the public has got to understand this should not at all be seen as an indication that we're over this," he said during the work session. "The peak is generated by us, by our decisions as individuals, as a community."

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With deposition and trial looming, Elon Musk has offered $44B for Twitter, again
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Elon Musk has proposed once again to buy Twitter for $54.20 a share.

The news that Musk is offering to carry on with the $44 billion buyout was first reported by Bloomberg. Now, a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission shows Musk made the proposal in a letter to the tech giant on Monday.

The New York Stock Exchange temporarily halted trading in Twitter stock twice Tuesday, first because of a big price move and the second time for a news event, presumably the announcement of Musk's renewed offer.

While the per share offer price on this latest proposal remains the same as the original offer, it’s unclear if Musk has made other term changes or if Twitter would reject it. According to other reports, a deal could be reached this week.

The stock closed at $52.00/share Tuesday, indicating market uncertainty around the $54.20 offer.

After Musk informed Twitter of plans to terminate the original agreement in July, Twitter sued. A trial has been expected in Delaware Chancery Court on Oct. 17.

With the proposition of a buyout on the table again, it revives the question of whether Musk might move Twitter from San Francisco to Central Texas.

He’s done so with some of his other companies. Tesla’s headquarters in southeast Travis County had its grand opening earlier this year and tunneling business The Boring Company moved to Pflugerville. At least two other Musk companies, SpaceX and Neuralink, have a Central Texas presence without being headquartered here.

Technology journalist Nilay Patel this afternoon voiced concerns that owning Twitter and Tesla together could be problematic for Musk, as his Tesla manufacturing facilities in Germany and China are both in countries that have disputes with Twitter over content moderation and censorship.

Telsa shares fell after the Twitter news became public, before rallying to close up, at $249.44.