64% chance peak COVID-19 has already passed in Texas, UT modeling says

There is a 64% chance that the COVID-19 peak has already passed in Texas, and a 99% chance it has passed across the U.S., according to the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. In a week, the chance that the peak has passed in Texas will increase to 89%.

The consortium used local caseload and death data, as well as cell phone GPS data, to develop its projections. The peak is defined as the day on which the model predicts the average daily death rate stops increasing.

The consortium's findings track with the projections of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The national peak in daily deaths from COVID-19 was a week ago, per the IHME, and in Texas it was six days ago.

Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told Austin City Council at a work session yesterday that while Austin is flattening the curve it remains unclear when the local peak will occur—or a second wave will arise.

"We've had factors change over the past two weeks that may impact or stretch out that peak, namely the reactivation of construction as well as the Easter holiday," he said. "We've heard anecdotally from a number of sources that a number of families have gotten together, there was still some activity that brought people together, so we're a bit concerned that we may see a little increase based upon that yet."

As of yesterday evening, Travis County has confirmed 1,232 COVID-19 cases and 27 deaths. Seventy-nine people in the 5-county region are hospitalized, with 34 in intensive care and 18 on ventilators.

Amid these projections and efforts by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to reopen businesses across the state, Dr. Escott urged continued vigilance.

"As we start to roll things out and look to roll out additional business in the future as far as reopening [the economy] is concerned, the public has got to understand this should not at all be seen as an indication that we're over this," he said during the work session. "The peak is generated by us, by our decisions as individuals, as a community."