The week in COVID: Austin's decline in new cases, hospitalizations now a plateau

Travis County’s daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases stop decline, hit plateau

After two weeks of steady decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases and daily hospital admissions, both trend lines now appear to be in a plateau.

"That's better than a surge - but still dangerous," Austin Mayor Steve Adler said during his State of the City address on Wednesday.

The seven-day moving average of daily new confirmed cases has risen slightly, to 262 as of Thursday evening compared to 218 last week. The moving average of daily new hospital admissions is now 38, up slightly from 37.7 last week.

Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott is concerned the plateau could reverse track, especially if schools reopen and sports stadiums welcome back fans.

"We've seen over and over again, across the country and across the globe, that when communities relax too soon, it results in a bounce of cases and a repeat surge," he told county commissioners on Tuesday.

Travis County’s reported COVID-19 deaths hold steady

As of Thursday evening, Travis County reported 288 deaths, up from 266 deaths a week ago.

The local case fatality rate—defined as the number of reported deaths per confirmed cases—remains around 1.3%, compared to 1.1% on July 9. But the 14-day moving average number of daily reported deaths has declined slightly, to four from around six last week.

Dr. Escott has attributed the increase to the fact that most of the patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in late July were over 60—and at much higher risk of death.

COVID-19 hospitalizations in the Austin metro continue to decline

The total number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 is also declining. As of Thursday evening, 297 people were hospitalized with the virus in the five-county metro area, compared to 388 a week ago.

And ICU occupancy improved incrementally—only to bounce back

After six weeks of the ICU occupancy at more than 80%, it finally dipped to 78% on Tuesday evening, according to a joint update from Austin's three major hospital systems.

But on Friday, the three systems—Ascension Seton, Baylor Scott & White and St. David's HealthCare—reported an updated ICU occupancy rate of 82%.

Ventilator use is declining, however, with 73 people using them as of Thursday evening, compared to 97 a week ago.

Austin’s COVID-19 cases remain most concentrated on the East Side

New COVID-19 cases in Austin remain most densely concentrated on the city's East Side—and specifically in the ZIP codes 78744, 78753 and 78660.

Austin Public Health has opened testing sites in these areas to serve those most in need and has also targeted outreach to the city's Latino and Black populations, who are at the highest risk of being hospitalized with and dying from COVID-19.

Austin’s older residents remain most at risk of dying from COVID-19—amid other disparities

While young people age 20-39 make up nearly half of the total confirmed COVID-19 cases, they are much more likely to avoid hospitalization and recover.

In sharp contrast, people 60 years and older make up only 12% of confirmed COVID-19 cases but account for 80% of reported deaths, according to Austin Public Health.

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