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COVID-19 'can and does spread silently' says UT's Lauren Ancel Meyers as Austin sees daily cases spike again
Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of integrative biology and executive director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas, presenting her work.
The coronavirus pandemic has taken a backseat to other unprecedented news events lately. But experts—from the National Institute of Health's Dr. Anthony Fauci to Austin's own Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers—continue to warn against the dangers of the disease.
"What we're seeing is probably preliminary evidence that since relaxation [of local stay-home orders] the virus has started to spread more quickly in the community," Dr. Meyers told Austonia.
Five weeks after the state began its reopening plan, and in the wake of mass protests against police brutality, Travis County reported its largest ever daily increase in coronavirus cases on both Monday and Tuesday evenings. Yesterday, the state released updated data that showed COVID-related hospitalizations have increased 36% since Memorial Day.
"The more times people come in close contact without taking precautions, the more opportunities there are for transmissions," she said.
Still, some Austin residents may feel burnt out on the forecasts of a coming surge.
Dr. Meyers, a professor of integrative biology who leads the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin, said her team's projections bear out the importance of precautionary measures in containing COVID's spread.
"Many people in the city haven't experienced firsthand the potentially devastating impacts of this virus," she said. "The reason it didn't hit most of us close to home was because of the stay home-work safe order; because we as individuals and we as communities took steps to prevent the rapid transmission of a pandemic. And the steps we're still taking today to minimize risk when we do go out in public are going a long way toward mitigating the risk in our communities."
Earlier this week, an expert at the World Health Organization said asymptomatic transmission of COVID is "very rare," leading to confusion and a clarification. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that as much as 35% of cases could be due to asymptomatic cases.
"It is very clear from the analyses we've done and other people have done that people are contagious before they have symptoms," Dr. Meyers said. "It's very important for your readership and for everybody to know that this is a virus that can and does spread silently."
This asymptomatic spread is one of the difficulties containing COVID, she added, and a reason for people to wear masks, which help limit spread by individuals who are infected but have no reason to know it.
These precautions remain necessary, especially since pandemics can rapidly overwhelm local healthcare systems. "Epidemics don't grow in a gradual way," Dr. Meyers said. "What happens is they look really flat and then suddenly they bend upwards and they become very alarming very quickly."
The consortium's team helped local health officials develop a five-stage alert system—with specific thresholds—in an attempt to avoid this scenario. "That's the reason for the staging, so that we can tap on the brakes and not have to slam on the brakes," Dr. Meyers said.
This approach also avoids ultimatums. "You don't want to err on the side of acting too early because then there may be unnecessary economic and societal costs," she added.
In the meantime, some precautions will remain critical until a vaccine or life-saving treatment is developed, especially as schools and universities navigate their reopenings.
"That said, as we learn more about the efficacy of face masks or we learn more about how this spreads and where this spreads, we may be able to do some of this in a more targeted fashion," Dr. Meyers said. "We are trying to explore options that are not completely drastic that still limit transmission."
Despite the terror of the pandemic, Dr. Meyers feels fortunate to be living in Austin and working at UT during it.
"We have very thoughtful leadership," she said. "There's no silver bullet, there's no right answer, but they're doing, I think, as good a job as possible in navigating this unprecedented situation and really thinking about the health and safety and economy wellbeing of our population."
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Popular
APD is searching for suspect Stephen Broderick.
Austin police lifted the shelter in place order after searching the area around 9600 block of Great Hills Trail near the Arboretum for a 41-year-old man named Stephen Broderick, who they believe is responsible for shooting and ultimately killing three people in Northwest Austin
As of 5 p.m., the suspect is still at large and considered to be armed and dangerous, though police do not believe he is actively targeting anyone else. During a press briefing at 4:45 on Sunday, APD Interim police Chief Joseph Chacon said they are switching the search from the immediate area to a fugitive search as they have exhausted all the leads they currently have.
Chacon confirmed during the briefing that Broderick was a former Travis County Sheriff's Office deputy. Chacon said they will remain on the scene for "several hours" and there were 75 FBI agents on the scene as of the briefing.
APD @Chief_Chacon provides updated media briefing in relation to Great Hills Trail incident. - PIO8 https://t.co/47siNWhARI
— Austin Police Department (@Austin_Police) April 18, 2021
Police believe the victims, who have been identified as two Hispanic women and one Black man, knew their assailant. Chacon said a child was involved but is now safely in police custody. Broderick was described as 5 foot, 7 inches with a medium build and was last seen wearing a gray hoodie, sunglasses and a baseball cap.
"We're very sorry that obviously that this has happened and we continue to try and locate this individual, we are transitioning from a search in this area to a fugitive search and those efforts will continue until this person is located," Chacon said. "I don't want anyone to think that we're packing up and going home. We're going to continue to look for this individual because he continues to pose a threat to this community."
At a 2:30 p.m. press briefing, Chacon said APD responded to a "shoot, stab, hot shot" call on Great Hills Trail and Rain Creek Parkway at 11:46 a.m. to find the three victims with gunshot wounds. APD was joined by the Austin Fire Department. ATCEMS, the local chapter of the FBI, the U.S. Marshals, Department of Public Safety, and the Round Rock Police Department for support.
Though Austin Travis-County EMS originally reported it as an active shooter situation, police now believe the incident was an isolated domestic event.
"This is still an ongoing and active investigation and we do not have this individual in custody yet," Chacon said during the first press briefing. "We would ask if you have your neighbors, phone numbers, call or text them check on them and make sure that they're okay. We are concerned that he might possibly take a hostage and be himself sheltered somewhere waiting for us to leave."
At this time the Great Hills Trail scene is still active. We are still asking residents to shelter in place and report suspicious activity. While a suspect is still at large it appears this is a domestic situation that is isolated and there is no risk to the general public. -PIO8
— Austin Police Department (@Austin_Police) April 18, 2021
Three helicopters and SWAT teams were sent to the area, as well as 18 ATCEMS response assets. According to Austin Police, the incident occurred at an apartment complex near Great Hills Trail and Rain Creek Parkway.
#texasshooting #masshooting Arboretum shooting Austin. pic.twitter.com/SkIsgDoYHt
— Jamie Hammonds (@jamie_hammonds5) April 18, 2021
APD announced at 1:02 p.m. that Loop 360 will be shut down in both directions from Spicewood Springs to 183 due to the incident. The roads will remain closed until law enforcement is able to wrap up the crime scene and units demobilize.
TRAFFIC UPDATE: Loop 360 will be shut down in both directions from Spicewoods Springs to 183 due to ongoing incident. - PIO8
— Austin Police Department (@Austin_Police) April 18, 2021
This is a developing story.
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Formula 1 is returning to Florida for the first time since 1959, announcing that the brand-new Miami Grand Prix will join the calendar in 2022 and Austin will no longer be the only F1 race in the U.S.
Held at the Hard Rock Stadium complex in Miami Gardens, this will be the first race in the Sunshine State in 62 years. With a new track setup, F1 will loop the stadium, home of the NFL's Miami Dolphins.
Excited for @F1 @f1miami @HardRockStadium - a Global Entertainment Destination. This event will bring opportunities for so many and will be world-class. Thank you to @gregmaffei #chasecarey #stefanodomenicali @MayorRHarris @Ogilbert @CommishDiaz @MayorDaniella pic.twitter.com/n6dDDD1cPX
— Tom Garfinkel (@TomGarfinkel) April 18, 2021
The new 3.36 mile circuit has 19 corners, three straights and potential for three DRS zones, with expected top speeds of 198 mph.
Now with two races in the U.S., F1 President Stefano Domenicali said they will avoid having back-to-back events by keeping the Miami Grand Prix separate from the U.S. Grand Prix, which is held at Austin's Circuit of the Americas.
The date of the race has yet to be confirmed, though Domenicali said he expects the first race in a 10-year deal to take place in the second quarter of 2022. Austin's race will take place on Oct. 24 this year.
"The USA is a key growth market for us, and we are greatly encouraged by our growing reach in the U.S. which will be further supported by this exciting second race," Domenicali said.
Miami will mark the 11th race location in the U.S. since the Championship began in 1950: Circuit of The Americas in Austin; Dallas, Texas; Indianapolis, Indiana; Sebring, Florida; Riverside, California; Watkins Glen, New York; Long Beach, California; Las Vegas, Nevada; Detroit, Michigan and Phoenix, Arizona. COTA was first opened in 2012.
Domenicali said F1 will be working with the FIA and the Hard Rock Stadium to leave a lasting impact on the community: discounted tickets for residents, a program to support local businesses and a STEM education program through F1 in schools.
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