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The Austin Convention Center, which has been prepared as a field hospital should local facilities need more space, will not open yet.
"We've delayed to some extent the opening of the alternate care site to ensure that the hospitals are getting the staff they need to support their efforts before we staff the ACS," Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told county commissioners on Tuesday.
Hospitalization rates in the Austin area have stabilized recently, with overall hospital occupancy falling slightly. ICU occupancy may be a different story—it was reported at 89% at the end of last week at the same time that social media posts appeared with accounts of stretched resources—but the field hospital is not meant for patients that need a high level of care.
"[Hospital capacity is] not going in an upward direction anymore, but the hospitals are impacted right now," Dr. Escott told commissioners. "Our health care workers, our nurses, our physicians, our allied health professionals in the hospitals are busy, and they're tired."
Because of more severe outbreaks in southern Texas, Austin will likely need to recruit workers from outside of the state. "I think the funds are available," Dr. Escott said. "The challenge is finding the people."
Mayor Steve Adler told CBS Austin that the convention center facility may still be needed in the future, and he tweeted yesterday to encourage nurses and skilled technicians to sign up to help with pandemic response.
We need available nurses and skilled technicians to register as volunteers to help with #COVID19 response. Register… https://t.co/lEib4AAxdg— Mayor Adler | 😷wear a mask. (@Mayor Adler | 😷wear a mask.)1595286199.0
This article has been updated with new information.
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A tale of two markets: Why the pandemic caused Austin rents to fall and housing prices to skyrocket
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A house and apartment complex next to each other in the Hyde Park neighborhood. (Emma Freer/Austonia)
Longtime Austinite Carlos Garza has recently toggled between the local rental and housing markets. He sold his Southwest Austin home last October, after living there for around a decade. Within two days of listing the property, it had received multiple offers; he ended up accepting an offer slightly above asking price within the week. "We were very pleased with the process," he told Austonia.
Since selling, Garza has rented an apartment while he decides what he'd like in his next home. Although it was a bit of sticker shock compared to what he paid to rent 10 years ago, he knows that rent is "relatively low" compared to recent years.
<p>Since the pandemic began, Austin's housing and rental markets have taken divergent paths. Across the five-county metro, the median sales price increased nearly 20% to $365,000 year-over-year, according to the Austin Board of Realtors's latest market report, which was published Thursday. Between March and December of 2020, however, the local apartment market slumped, with both rents and absorption rates in decline compared to the previous year, according to ApartmentData.com's February report. These trends are good for sellers and renters but cause challenges for prospective buyers, who face steep competition and high prices, and landlords. </p><p>"The main reason is the bifurcation of the economy," said Dr. Luis Torres, a research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. </p><p><strong>On the up and up</strong> </p><p>The Austin housing market was strong going into the pandemic and quickly rebounded due to a number of factors: continued job creation, especially in the tech and professional services sector; a healthy rate of relocations; a millennial-heavy population, with many members starting families and looking for more space at home. </p><p>"Because of the pandemic we saw an enormous amount of families decide after 90 days living in one tiny space with no backyard, 'Oh my gosh, we need to make a change,'" ABoR President Susan Horton told Austonia.</p><p>In addition to sustained demand, the housing market has long faced low supply. This is good for sellers, like Garza, but provides challenging when they need to buy a new home in turn, prompting some to rent in the short term.</p><p>During the pandemic, this challenge has been exacerbated as potential sellers, worried about the risk of exposure to COVID and the challenge of finding a new place to move into, <a href="https://austonia.com/austin-housing-market-2021" target="_blank">held off on listing their homes</a>, pushing prices even higher. </p><p>"Despite developers building as quickly as they can throughout the region and more than 6,000 homesites projected to come online within the next six months, the overall number of lots in development is only just able to keep up with current demand," Zonda's Austin Regional Director Vaike O'Grady said in a statement Thursday. "This means that homes will continue to sell as soon as they hit the market, and prices will continue to rise steadily in the months to come."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-height="1352" data-rm-shortcode-id="96503fdbc134850e80119b068aadba04" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDc2Ni9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMjcyNzI3NX0._lr9Z7CtZRCPWBueQf7imTLkcEDxXCKVir8E6Q2JRMY/img.jpg?width=980" data-width="1045" id="e58d9" type="lazy-image"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">(Austin Board of Realtors)</small></p><p>The success of the Austin housing market indicates that prospective homebuyers have largely been shielded from the financial impacts of the pandemic, Torres said. Demographically, this crowd typically tends to be more educated and earn higher income than renters. Since the pandemic began, they are also more likely to have had the option to work from home, which may make a move to the suburbs more appealing—both for the additional space and because there's no commute to worry about. There's also the added benefit of historically low-interest rates. As a result, he said, "People who were renting became homeowners."<br/></p><p><strong>The apartment market slump</strong> </p><p>The local rental market was impacted in almost the exact opposite way: its target audience was more likely to have suffered job loss as a result of the pandemic or to work in an industry that did not allow for social distancing, such as hospitality, and a glut of new construction in recent years meant that supply outpaced demand. </p><p>Unlike the housing market, which has seen record-low levels of inventory, the rental market was "saturated" with available units, Horton said.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-height="878" data-rm-shortcode-id="bb90b042c367dca3879bf0761c495c76" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDc3MC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1ODY3NDU1MX0.bY7LKTb8a_1HzOKFMKj6cwHRD0tQQeGwWmLE2rvw9kc/img.png?width=980" data-width="1127" id="326f7" type="lazy-image"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">This graphic, from ApartmentData.com's February market report, shows how rent and occupancy rates have fallen in Austin over the course of the pandemic. </small></p><p>This is good for tenants. "It's a great time to rent right now generally because prices are down nationally," Apartment Guide Managing Editor Brian Carberry said.<br/></p><p>But it's tough for landlords, whose tenants may be transitioning to homeownership or in need of rental assistance, according to the Austin Apartment Association's state-of-the-industry report, which was released Feb. 1. "By most measures, single-family is outperforming multifamily, due to the pandemic-related demand for more spacious residences in suburban locations that accommodate learning and working from home," TXP President Jon Hockenyos said in the ApartmentData.com report. </p><p>The advent of COVID-19 has also led to job loss and reduced retail sales. "These loss-of-income and consumer behavior trends produced a double-whammy effect on the apartment industry, which houses many hourly-wage workers needing housing assistance," AAA President Emily Blair said in the same document. </p><p>But things could be worse, Torres said, pointing to the role stimulus checks and unemployment benefits have played in keeping the rental market from slumping even further. He also added that, as the pandemic lessens—and unemployment rates and business restrictions do the same—there will likely be a rebound. "When we start seeing all of these things, I think the apartment market will be much better," he said. </p><p>When this happens, the rental market's surplus supply will come in handy. Meanwhile, low housing inventory coupled with the likelihood that interest rates may soon begin to rise could spell a slowdown in that market, Torres said. But he added: "It's still going to be strong."</p>
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Citing a 77% decline in new COVID cases nationally since early January, Dr. Martin Makary, a surgical oncologist and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, expects COVID-19 "will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life."
<p>Makary wrote about this forecast in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731" target="_blank">a recent opinion column</a> for the Wall Street Journal, setting off a range of reactions. </p><p>This trend is mirrored in Austin, where the daily number of new confirmed COVID cases fell nearly 60% between Jan. 17 and Feb. 12. (More recent data is not yet available due to case reporting delays caused by the winter storms last week.) </p><p>"From a scientific standpoint, there must be some reason for it," Makary told Austonia. "And it cannot be explained by vaccination rates or a sudden change in behavior."</p><p>Instead, he argues that natural immunity from prior infection—especially among asymptomatic patients—is more common than previously thought, in part because "antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity." He cites <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00436-4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a recent Nature article</a> by researchers at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, who found that T-cell immunity can be present even when antibodies are not detectable.</p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Seroprevalence studies estimating community immunity rates have relied on antibody testing. But this Nature article & studies from Karolinska Inst. describe why T-cell immunity can be present even when Antibodies are not present (<a href="https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz">https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz</a>).<a href="https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2">https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2</a><br/>— Marty Makary M.D., M.P.H. (@MartyMakary) <a href="https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1363599192673968136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div><p>"Not all models have to be grim and bad news," he said. "And while it appears that we're on a good path, we cannot let up our guard until we're in a safer place."<br/></p><p>Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner or the Food and Drug Administration, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/dr-scott-gottlieb-herd-immunity-by-april-estimate-too-aggressive.html" target="_blank">told CNBC on Monday</a> that he agrees with Makary's sentiment even though he thinks the path forward will not be linear, with a likely increase in cases next fall and winter. "I think things will be normal in the spring and the summer of this year," he said. </p><p>But not everyone agrees with this timeline. </p><p><strong>Local feedback</strong> </p><p>Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, a Texas epidemiologist who writes the blog Your Local Epidemiologist, responded to Makary's column, raising questions about the statistics he cited, his assumptions around natural immunity and the role of behavioral changes. "Herd immunity in 6 weeks sounds really nice, but it's important to keep realistic expectations," she wrote in <a href="https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/unfortunately-we-will-not-reach-herd" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a post published Monday</a>. "I am doubtful this will happen."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-height="1234" data-rm-shortcode-id="3958bb54cd5068490397c8be998a1af5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY4OTU4NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNjMwOTEwMn0.VnjI2PxU3pWcCriWIz0L0WyaDGm5YF4idwChQjHhN9Y/img.png?width=980" data-width="1470" id="1e897" type="lazy-image"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">Jetelina responded to individual claims made in Makary's column.</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(Your Local Epidemiologist) </small></p><p><a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/covid-immunity" target="_blank">Herd immunity</a> is achieved when a majority of a population is immune to a disease, either because they've been vaccianted against it or have recovered from it themselves. </p><p>Jetelina also disputed Makary's claim that many medical experts "are afraid to talk about herd immunity" because <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4" target="_blank">some politicians</a> suggested the U.S. let the pandemic run its course as a way to achieve it. "Epidemiologists aren't afraid to talk about herd immunity," Jetelina wrote in response. "This is, quite frankly, our job."<br/></p><p>Ultimately, Jetelina argues that there is not yet enough evidence to support Makary's claims about natural immunity, about which there remains many questions, including how it might be impacted by new variants, the threshold needed for community protection and how long it lasts after infection.</p><p>Austin Public Health said experts are still working to arrive at answers to these questions in a statement shared with Austonia. The department also pointed out that herd immunity from natural infections was never achieved for diseases such as smallpox, polio and measles, which were only eradicated through widespread vaccination efforts. </p><p>"(R)eaching herd immunity by April through vaccination efforts is very optimistic and likely not the case for our community with current state allocations," according to the statement. "While we diligently work to vaccinate everyone over the coming weeks and months, it continues to remain incredibly important to keep wearing your mask, watching your distance and washing your hands."</p><p><strong>Planning ahead</strong> </p><p>Makary, who said he frequents Austin, believes that natural immunity combined with rising vaccination rates could augur a return to normal as soon as late April or May. "Herd immunity is not binary," he said. "It's already kicking in."</p><p>Not talking about its impact is irresponsible, in Makary's view, although he understands that people may be skeptical. "It's been a very morbid season," he said. "It's hard, quite frankly, to trust projections. But at this point the trends are promising, and it's good for us to start planning accordingly. Also, I think it's important for people to have hope." </p><p>Makary argues that the U.S. pandemic strategy has been, so far, reactionary. By anticipating a plateau this spring and summer, local, state and federal governments can begin planning for a return to pre-pandemic activity. </p><p>This is not to say that another surge is not possible, especially considering the emergence of new, more contagious variants. "We need to be prepared to flip the switch on in the fall and go back to masking and maybe even distancing," he said.</p><p>But for now Markary thinks a dose of optimism is just what the doctor ordered: "By pointing out the light at the end of the tunnel, it's my hope that people will continue to be compliant with all the public health mitigation for a little bit longer until we get to that point."</p>
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