Austin officials had their third press conference in six days on Monday to discuss concerning trends in COVID-19 caseloads and hospitalizations.
While current hospital capacity is in "good shape," Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said, he is concerned that that data points to a coming surge.
Although local jurisdictions are unable to enforce masking or interfere with the state's reopening plan, Austin Mayor Steve Adler and former Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt pleaded with residents to recommit to wearing masks and social distancing while in public to slow the spread of the virus, which they said is picking up speed.
The city also updated its local Stay Home-Work Safe order to "strongly encourage" businesses to operate at 25% capacity or less.
Austin Public Health also advanced the local threat level on Monday from stage 3 to stage 4, according to the five-stage system its staff developed with the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas. At this stage, it recommends residents limit social interactions to groups of 10 or fewer and avoid unnecessary trips.
Below, we answer some questions about how we got here, why officials are worried and what the future holds.
Mayor Steve Adler, former Travis Co. Judge Sarah Eckhardt and Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mar… https://t.co/MW6ZXzDmAx— Emma Freer (@Emma Freer)1592249751.0
Why were we upgraded to the next stage of COVID-19 risk?
The trigger for the upgrade was that the county hit a rolling 7-day average of at least 20 new hospital admissions daily on Sunday.
While Dr. Escott said at the press conference that there is currently plenty of hospital capacity in the five-county region, he added that an increase in daily hospitalizations indicates an alarming trend.
Why are local officials so focused on this rolling average of new hospital admissions?
With the help of the UT consortium, local health authorities and elected officials arrived at what they have called a trigger point. Once daily new hospital admissions exceed 20, on average, the region either needs to pull back on reopening or prepare for a surge.
"Epidemics don't grow in a gradual way," consortium director Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers told Austonia last week. "What happens is they look really flat and then suddenly they bend upwards and they become very alarming very quickly."
We've heard about a coming surge for months. But right now there are 129 COVID-19 patients hospitalized and a regional capacity of 4,300 beds. This seems like plenty, even if caseloads are increasing, right?
The 4,300-bed total is the maximum capacity provided under APH's surge plan and includes interventions such as field hospitals. The number of staffed hospital beds in the region is lower: 3,356, according to the state department of health.
Most of these beds are currently occupied by non-COVID patients, such as those being treated for cancer, recovering from heart attacks and dealing with injuries. The current occupancy rate is 70%, Dr. Escott said at the press conference.
So the total number of available hospital beds is 842, per the state data. ICU capacity is 115 beds, and there are 389 ventilators available.
This may seem like a comfortable surplus; at 20 new hospitalizations a day, on average, it would take around 42 days to fill up those available beds, assuming no one was discharged. But local officials stressed that, as the virus spreads, it will do so at an exponential rate—not an incremental one.
"Our hospitals are in good shape right now," Dr. Escott said, urging residents in need of health care not to avoid or postpone seeking it. The concern is in three to five weeks, if this trends continues, he said.
You wrote about increased testing recently. Shouldn't we expect an increase in the number of confirmed cases to follow?
Earlier this month, APH expanded access to its free testing service to asymptomatic residents following mass protests against police brutality. Thousands of residents took advantage.
But local health authorities say there is other evidence—such as increased hospitalizations and a rising positive rate among those who are tested—that the virus is gaining speed.
Hospitalizations are "the most reliable, though slightly delayed, indicator of the changing rate of spread," according to a May 18 report by researchers at the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.
Dr. Escott also raised concern about the increasing rate of positive COVID-19 test results. During a press conference last week, he said the local positive rate had recently jumped from around 5% to 9.3%.
"Once we enter this trajectory, it's very difficult to get out," he said.
The county's COVID-19 dashboard charts hospitalization data. Recently, there has been an uptick.
(Travis County COVID-19 Public Dashboard)
What can local officials do to slow this surge?
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has prevented municipalities from instituting stay-home orders in conflict with the state's rules or mandating public masking. As a result, city and county governments are legally only able to make recommendations for how residents might respond.
To this end, the city of Austin amended its Stay Home-Work Safe order to strongly encourage—"because we can't mandate it," Adler said Monday—that reopened businesses operate at a minimal indoor capacity and provide services remotely, as much as possible, such as through curbside delivery.
And local officials have repeatedly stressed the need for residents to adapt their behavior—wearing masks and social distancing, chief among them—voluntarily.
"The best that we can provide as government officials is the best information," former Eckhardt said at the Monday press conference, "so that we can all make the best individual choices."
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Popular
Homeless residents gather an at a camp under an overpass in South Austin. (Jordan Vonderhaar)
Editor's note: These submissions are the unedited views of their authors. Claims made have not been fact-checked to give the proponent and opponent a chance to speak their minds freely.
Pro: Voting yes on Prop B sends a message to council that voters' voices and real solutions are paramount
In June 2019, the Austin City Council rescinded regulations on camping in public spaces. They did so without any serious public discussion and in fact appeared to actively avoid serious scrutiny. The resulting chaos is clear for all to see. Parks and playgrounds impacted by illicit behavior, lewd activities in public, trash strewn in waterways and public spaces, and most critically, assaults on the public and on other homeless individuals.
It is obvious that the homeless are not helped by this misadventure. Vulnerable women and youth in these camps are abused, mentally ill individuals are not served and there is no incentive for substance abusers to seek help.
Proponents of this mess have put forward no credible plan for any short term housing that restores safety—instead they talk about abstract housing concepts that even they acknowledge will take years to develop. This is the mark of narrowly focused activism, not what citizens should expect from elected leaders who promise to serve their communities. At every turn, the proponents of this chaos have demonstrated that they are not capable of fully considering the needs of diverse communities and proposing workable solutions. Instead they simply double down on trying to tell Austin that anything other than their chaos is heartless and inhumane. This is intellectually lazy, and Austin should demand better.
The chaos created by the City Council has resulted in a public outcry culminating in the citizens demanding to be heard by direct ballot. This demand is across the political and economic spectrum. As a co-founder of the Save Austin Now PAC and a lifelong Democrat, I have seen the diversity of people raising their voices in concern for our city.
It's time we turn this situation around and vote yes on Prop B. It sends a clear message to the council that the citizens of Austin must be heard as we work toward real solutions. There are successful models to learn from and some in our own state. But it all starts with voting yes on Prop B starting April 19.
Con: Prop B blames homeless individuals rather than providing solutions to societal problems
Austin's homeless population needs help, but Prop B doesn't do anything to solve our city's problems. It simply tells people who are experiencing homelessness that they cannot exist, visibly, in public space. I, too, am worried about the encampments. They are evidence that our strategies to help people return to housing aren't sufficient. But telling people "You can't stay here" without giving them alternatives isn't a solution.
The reason so many people are experiencing homelessness is that it takes a long time to get into housing, even when you do everything right. Shelters are at capacity, we lack deeply affordable housing, landlords can refuse housing vouchers, and housing programs are full.
As a case study, I want to tell you about "Bill," whom I met two years ago. Bill was a veteran, father, former truck driver and person of faith. He was also homeless and unsheltered. Bill had recently suffered a series of strokes and was desperate for both disability income and housing.
Bill and I worked together every single week for 17 months. He eventually was awarded disability and moved into his own apartment.
Bill's situation is typical of hundreds of people who are stymied by our complicated processes and lack of housing. Prop B would not add resources for people like Bill. Read the ballot language. Because Prop B bans "camping," people would have to move around constantly to avoid being cited. All that moving around takes time and energy. People like Bill would have a harder time keeping their appointments with case managers. Unpaid fines from citations build a criminal record—and landlords can choose not to rent to someone with a record. So punishing people for not having housing makes it even harder to get housing. Prop B hurts, not helps.
In this election, Austinites have a choice to criminalize people like Bill or to work toward solutions. Prop B places the blame on individuals rather than recognizing homelessness as a failure of society.
Prop B is an inhumane and wrong response. Oppose Prop B, and let's focus on solutions. Learn more here.- Austin Mayor Steve Adler says camping ban 'is not working' - austonia ›
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- Austonia's guide to the May 1 local election - austonia ›
