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Coronavirus cases migrate south and east as predicted, but caseload data has its limits

COVID-19 cases have migrated to the south and east ZIP codes of Austin. (Source: Travis County COVID-19 Dashboard)
In the first rounds of testing for COVID-19, county data showed coronavirus cases clustered in wealthier areas of Austin, but in a span of a week that trend seems to be reversing.
More than 40% of the county's 856 confirmed coronavirus cases are in the following ZIP codes as of yesterday:
ZIP code | Cases as of April 9 |
78748 (South Austin) | 71 |
78705 (West Campus) | 55 |
78741 (East Oltorf and Montopolis) | 57 |
78744 (Southeast Austin) | 51 |
78704 (central South Austin) | 48 |
787660 (Pflugerville) | 43 |
78746 (West Lake Hills and Rollingwood) | 34 |
Dell Medical School Dean Clay Johnston wrote in an April 3 email that residents in the wealthier neighborhoods may have traveled recently and include "big wigs (who shake a lot of hands and attend many events)." But he also suggested this trend was likely to change "because those now with the most contacts are in lower-paying positions."
While that seems to be bearing out, with cases migrating south and east, Dr. Elizabeth Matsui—a professor of population health and pediatrics and director of clinical and translational research at Dell Medical School—cautioned that the data is incomplete.
"At this point, the most that we could do is provide an educated guess or some ideas about what might explain [the caseload distribution]," she said during a phone interview last week.
Dr. Matsui added that caseload numbers may not be the most accurate metric.
"The positive test data by ZIP code is biased, meaning that it in part reflects who has access to testing, whereas the criteria for hospitalizing someone are more similar across groups of people," she said.
Since April 8, the city has provided hospitalization numbers, but the racial and ethnic breakdown of those hospitalized patients is not available. So far, the only group overrepresented among confirmed cases is non-Hispanic whites, who make up 49% of county population and 63% of those with positive test results.
"Different populations, in particular racial and ethnic minority populations, who, let's say on average have the same level of symptoms as a nonminority population, are very likely to be less likely to get tested," Dr. Matsui said.
Carmen Llanes Pulido—executive director of the nonprofit Go Austin/Vamos Austin, which advocates for health equity in East Austin—said this pandemic is exacerbating inequities.
"Yes, there's international travel," she said. "Yes, there's different kinds of exposure, but certainly the ability to get tested, I think, is directly connected to inequity."
Llanes Pulido added in a follow-up email that minority groups are also at higher risk of exposure.
"People of color are overrepresented in many of the jobs that are deemed essential right now: postal carriers, rideshare and delivery drivers, supermarket employees, construction workers, childcare providers for essential workers, etc. These communities also tend to have less financial security to miss work and are less likely to have paid sick leave and vacation time to allow them to stay from home," she wrote. "Many also do not qualify for unemployment."
Dr. Matsui said that until we have a larger data pool and demographic information on who is hospitalized due to coronavirus we will not have a clear idea of where disparities lie.
"We are hampered by the limited ability to tap into accurate, valid data," she said.
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Popular
Samsung could be adding to its presence in Northeast Austin, according to an Austin Business Journal report.
Samsung might soon be making more moves in the Austin metro.
The tech giant, which made waves as it announced plans to build a $17 billion chip plant in Taylor in late 2021, might be looking to expand in the Northeast Austin area, according to an Austin Business Journal report.
ABJ said the South Korean company is seeking more tax breaks from nearby Taylor and Manor school districts. The company filed documents requesting Chapter 313 incentives related to the breaks Saturday, and ABJ said each district will review the requests separately on Tuesday.
"While we do not have specific plans to build at this time, the Chapter 313 application process is part of our long-term planning to evaluate the viability of potentially building additional fabrication plants in the U.S.," Samsung Austin Semiconductor LLC.'s director of communications, Michele Glaze, told the ABJ.
But Samsung has made headlines for more than just the $17 billion plant: In early 2022, the company caught heat for two separate spills of millions of gallons of wastewater into tributaries near its semiconductor plant.
While no expansion is promised, ABJ speculates that expansions could occur at the 1,200 acre planned Taylor factory or near the chipmaking factory on Austin's East Parmer Lane. Both expansions could bring even more revenue and job opportunities to Samsung's Texas home.
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Austin FC earned a last-minute 2-2 draw against Orlando City SC at Q2 Stadium Sunday night. (Austin FC/Twitter)
A first minute error gave Austin FC an early setback, but with the help of two red cards and two second-half goals, the Verde and Black still forced a last-minute tie in a messy home battle against Orlando City SC Sunday night.
With the 2-2 draw, Austin dropped from No. 1 in the MLS West conference but still earned a point in the standings thanks to a penalty kick goal from Sebastian Driussi and a breakthrough shot from striker Moussa Djitte, who scored his first goal with the club in the final minute of play.
Here are the top three takeaways from the match:
A fateful mistake
Pouncing on the early chances 🔥 #DaleMiAmor | #VamosOrlandopic.twitter.com/RDn1w7NCHM
— Orlando City SC (@OrlandoCitySC) May 23, 2022
Just days after his highlight reel-worthy LAFC performance, Austin keeper Brad Stuver scratched heads as he gave away a goal seconds into the game. Stuver's fateful pass went straight to Orlando's Junior Urco, who was already in the box and tapped a quick pass to Ercan Kara to score the first goal of the match.
The mistake forced Austin to chase a tie for the rest of the match, especially as center back Ruben Gabrielsen benched himself in the 20th minute. The team later said Gabrielsen has come down with something similar to a stomach bug.
Orlando would score two minutes later, and Austin FC left the first half looking like the opposite of its "Best in the MLS" self from just days prior.
The two red cards
Sebastián Driussi right down the middle.
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 23, 2022
His 8th goal of the season cuts the lead in half for @AustinFC. pic.twitter.com/4sGccamVg3
By the 60th minute of the match, however, the tides had turned. Orlando's Rodrigo Schlegel, who had already racked up a yellow card on a handball, was ousted from the game two minutes later for yet another handball, this time in the penalty box.
Austin's main man Sebastian Driussi took the kick and sent it in for his eighth goal of the season to make it 2-1.
And just over five minutes later, Orlando's Cesar Araujo was the second man in purple kicked out of the match after he kicked Alex Ring on a slide tackle near the box. Austin was left with just over 20 minutes, and just nine opponents left, to try and tie it up.
The 'Mouss' is loose!
Moussa Djitté STOPPAGE TIME EQUALIZER for @AustinFC! 😱 pic.twitter.com/db7iQwff6Q
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 23, 2022
As the whistle blew and regulation time ran out, Orlando seemed to have won the match. The team had withstood many, many close calls—including two shots off the post from Austin FC's Diego Fagundez and Maxi Urruti—as Austin FC flooded the box with 22 cracks at a goal.
But thanks to the chaotic nature of the game, Austin FC was given nine extra minutes to tie it up. Moussa Djitte was the one who finally broke through five minutes into stoppage time, earning his first goal in Verde to put a 2-2 cap on the wild home match.
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