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Controversial 'herd immunity' scientist tells Austonia life will be back to normal by April

Citing a 77% decline in new COVID cases nationally since early January, Dr. Martin Makary, a surgical oncologist and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, expects COVID-19 "will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life."
Makary wrote about this forecast in a recent opinion column for the Wall Street Journal, setting off a range of reactions.
This trend is mirrored in Austin, where the daily number of new confirmed COVID cases fell nearly 60% between Jan. 17 and Feb. 12. (More recent data is not yet available due to case reporting delays caused by the winter storms last week.)
"From a scientific standpoint, there must be some reason for it," Makary told Austonia. "And it cannot be explained by vaccination rates or a sudden change in behavior."
Instead, he argues that natural immunity from prior infection—especially among asymptomatic patients—is more common than previously thought, in part because "antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity." He cites a recent Nature article by researchers at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, who found that T-cell immunity can be present even when antibodies are not detectable.
Seroprevalence studies estimating community immunity rates have relied on antibody testing. But this Nature article & studies from Karolinska Inst. describe why T-cell immunity can be present even when Antibodies are not present (https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz).https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2
— Marty Makary M.D., M.P.H. (@MartyMakary) February 21, 2021
"Not all models have to be grim and bad news," he said. "And while it appears that we're on a good path, we cannot let up our guard until we're in a safer place."
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner or the Food and Drug Administration, told CNBC on Monday that he agrees with Makary's sentiment even though he thinks the path forward will not be linear, with a likely increase in cases next fall and winter. "I think things will be normal in the spring and the summer of this year," he said.
But not everyone agrees with this timeline.
Local feedback
Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, a Texas epidemiologist who writes the blog Your Local Epidemiologist, responded to Makary's column, raising questions about the statistics he cited, his assumptions around natural immunity and the role of behavioral changes. "Herd immunity in 6 weeks sounds really nice, but it's important to keep realistic expectations," she wrote in a post published Monday. "I am doubtful this will happen."
Jetelina responded to individual claims made in Makary's column.(Your Local Epidemiologist)
Herd immunity is achieved when a majority of a population is immune to a disease, either because they've been vaccianted against it or have recovered from it themselves.
Jetelina also disputed Makary's claim that many medical experts "are afraid to talk about herd immunity" because some politicians suggested the U.S. let the pandemic run its course as a way to achieve it. "Epidemiologists aren't afraid to talk about herd immunity," Jetelina wrote in response. "This is, quite frankly, our job."
Ultimately, Jetelina argues that there is not yet enough evidence to support Makary's claims about natural immunity, about which there remains many questions, including how it might be impacted by new variants, the threshold needed for community protection and how long it lasts after infection.
Austin Public Health said experts are still working to arrive at answers to these questions in a statement shared with Austonia. The department also pointed out that herd immunity from natural infections was never achieved for diseases such as smallpox, polio and measles, which were only eradicated through widespread vaccination efforts.
"(R)eaching herd immunity by April through vaccination efforts is very optimistic and likely not the case for our community with current state allocations," according to the statement. "While we diligently work to vaccinate everyone over the coming weeks and months, it continues to remain incredibly important to keep wearing your mask, watching your distance and washing your hands."
Planning ahead
Makary, who said he frequents Austin, believes that natural immunity combined with rising vaccination rates could augur a return to normal as soon as late April or May. "Herd immunity is not binary," he said. "It's already kicking in."
Not talking about its impact is irresponsible, in Makary's view, although he understands that people may be skeptical. "It's been a very morbid season," he said. "It's hard, quite frankly, to trust projections. But at this point the trends are promising, and it's good for us to start planning accordingly. Also, I think it's important for people to have hope."
Makary argues that the U.S. pandemic strategy has been, so far, reactionary. By anticipating a plateau this spring and summer, local, state and federal governments can begin planning for a return to pre-pandemic activity.
This is not to say that another surge is not possible, especially considering the emergence of new, more contagious variants. "We need to be prepared to flip the switch on in the fall and go back to masking and maybe even distancing," he said.
But for now Markary thinks a dose of optimism is just what the doctor ordered: "By pointing out the light at the end of the tunnel, it's my hope that people will continue to be compliant with all the public health mitigation for a little bit longer until we get to that point."
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Popular
(Pexels)
Austin Nicholson was ahead of the curve when he got his vasectomy in September 2021, saving himself a long line as Austin-area doctors say the demand for sterilization has seen a “significant” spike since Roe v. Wade was overturned on Friday.
Nicholson, 25, said he would prefer to adopt children, had felt the Supreme Court decision coming for a while, and, wary of the consequences, he decided to pull the trigger and make an appointment.
“A big part of it was the political climate. We could both potentially face consequences and she would definitely face more consequences, which I also personally would not want,” Nicholson said. “I didn't want to be stuck in Texas and have a potential abortion on the mind when it's illegal.”
(Austin Nicholson)
According to vasectomy specialist Dr. Luke Machen of Austin Fertility and Reproductive Medicine, the clinic received over 150 vasectomy appointment requests combined on Friday and Monday following the ruling. Typically, the clinic performs 45-50 vasectomies per month.
The Austin Urology Institute reported that they received about 70 calls in the first hour after the ruling was released. OBYN at Women’s Health Domain reported receiving over 100 requests from women interested in getting their tubes tied.
“I would say a significant number of patients who scheduled recently have mentioned the Supreme Court case,” Machen said. “A lot of guys have said they were thinking about having a vasectomy over the last year or so, and the ruling was the final push to get it done.”
The average patient at Austin Fertility who receives a vasectomy is about 37, though Machen said he has started to see an increased number of patients with zero children choosing to get a vasectomy. While they put together a study, Machen expects demand for the procedure to plateau but stay higher than before the ruling.
Machen said vasectomy is the most effective form of permanent birth control, requires only about a week of recovery time, is reversible with success rates of up to 95% and has no effects on sexual function or testosterone.
Nicholson said the procedure was less than $700, he was never in any pain, had very little recovery time and has never regretted the decision—in fact, he has happily recommended the procedure to friends.
“It helps me feel better knowing that I won't put a woman in that situation where she'd have to be faced with a potentially life-altering decision, or consequence even,” Nicholson said. “I actually have had three of my friends ask me questions about it and tell me that they were considering it.”
(Valencia Hotel Group)
Live music and beer? Say no more. With a location in Austin, and others throughout Texas, the court hotels by the Valencia Hotel Group have a new offering for weekend stays: Live Music & Longnecks.
Enjoy live music all weekend long and check out the hotels’ state-of-the-art amenities between sets. Make a splash in the pool, enjoy outdoor fire pits, or challenge your friends in a yard game while enjoying a weekend full of live music! Did we mention the package includes deluxe accommodations and a bucket of beer? Oh, and if you needed more convincing, this pet-friendly hotel means the whole family can join in on the fun.
The hotels
Explore any of the Court Hotels by Valencia Hotel Group for a memorable escape. Each property offers a unique experience remnant of yesteryear but with all of the modern amenities that make for a fun and comfortable stay. With acres of landscaped courtyards, relax and unwind in an outdoor environment perfect for doing everything or absolutely nothing at all. With locations in Austin, College Station, Irving, and Lubbock your urban retreat has never been so close.
The music
Locals and travelers alike are invited to enjoy the deep roots of Texas music all summer long with a robust lineup of live performances. From the banks of the San Antonio Riverwalk to Irving’s manicured streets, Valencia’s hotels are a place to gather and reconnect, offering uniquely Texan settings for the weekly performances.
“We’re proud of the community we’ve fostered among Texas musicians and the many rising stars who perform at our properties,” says Amy Trench, corporate director of brand marketing & PR for Valencia Hotel Group.
In Austin, you can catch good ol’ fashioned Texas country by Drew Moreland and Clayton Gardner, bluegrass by Reagan Quinn, and much, much more.
With unique programming at each of Valencia’s properties, there’s something for everyone to enjoy all summer long.
The perks
If you’re a Valencia Hotel Group Rewards member, the perks are plentiful. Enjoy up to 10% off the Best Available Rate, and for a limited time, members can save up to 15% off a stay of 2 nights or more, for select stays in 2022.
But that’s really just the beginning. At select locations, you can enjoy discounts on weeknight stays, a complimentary third night, or curated packages for a romantic getaway or a night of watching the Verde at Q2 Stadium. You’ll also find special rates for AAA and AARP Members, educators, and front-line heroes including military, law enforcement, fire, and rescue workers.