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A sampling of Austin crime reports since noon Saturday:
7:25 a.m.: Carjacking, person assaulted and robbed of vehicle. 8801 McCann Dr.
2:09 a.m.: A white Lexus hits a police car and leads police on a 100 mph chase until the driver crashes and is arrested at gunpoint. E. Oltorf St. & Pleasant Valley Rd.
11:17 p.m.: Man falls from cliff into Lake Austin, in Tarrytown. A kayaker rescues the man and takes him to a nearby dock, where first responders found him and transported to local hospital. 2200 Scenic Dr.
10:48 p.m.: Man brandishing weapon in Mueller H-E-B parking lot. 1801 E. 51st St.
10:01 p.m.: Person injured in West Campus assault. 2313 Rio Grande St.
12:17 p.m.: Woman assaults Citgo employee, flees on foot. 2700 E. 7th St.
11:48 a.m: Man waving knife at cars driving by. 4500 E. William Cannon Dr.
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(NK Maribor/Twitter)
Zan Kolmanic, pictured right, will reportedly be joining Austin FC this season.
Austin FC has reportedly signed 20-year old Slovenian star Žan Kolmanič for a cool $1.8 million.
<p>According to Slovenian sporting sites <a href="https://ekipa.svet24.si/clanek/nogomet/prva-liga/60375aed66687/razkrivamo-odskodnino-in-njegov-novi-klub-mariborski-dragulj-odhaja-ze-po-tekmi-z-olimpijo" target="_blank">Ekipa24</a> and<a href="https://www.vecer.com/sport/nogomet/odzval-se-je-oliver-bogatinov-kar-bo-novi-sportni-direktor-sejal-bo-tudi-zel-10236225" target="_blank"> Vecer</a>, the young left-back defender has agreed to fill the Verdes' 23rd slot on their inaugural roster.</p><p>Kolmanič, who would be the team's second U-22 player, has made 44 appearances at current team <a href="https://www.nkmaribor.com/" target="_blank">NK Maribor</a> since 2017. The club is currently 15-time national champions in the Slovenian PrvaLiga, Slovenia's premier league. Kolmanič has also played nationally for Slovenia's U-21 team.</p><p>The new prospect has already been called "the Luca Doncic of the MLS" fans, but Austin FC has yet to officially confirm the move.</p><p>If confirmed, Kolmanič would be the eighth defender to sign with Austin FC and would be the youngest on the roster alongside 20-year-old No. 1 SuperDraft pick Daniel Pereira. </p><p>Austin FC's current roster sits at:</p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>4 goalkeepers</li><li>7 defenders</li><li>6 midfielders</li><li>6 forwards</li></ul><p>After Kolmanič, the club has seven open spots to fill before it reaches its player cap.</p><p>Austin FC's full roster can be found <a href="https://www.austinfc.com/players?site_path=players&position=All&op=Update&form_build_id=form-8-EVCOEYcCI3Wqtxw-Ip9Eut8KybCbzvV9_u566zKAM&form_id=mp7_club_player_filters_form" target="_blank">here.</a></p>
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Citing a 77% decline in new COVID cases nationally since early January, Dr. Martin Makary, a surgical oncologist and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, expects COVID-19 "will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life."
<p>Makary wrote about this forecast in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731" target="_blank">a recent opinion column</a> for the Wall Street Journal, setting off a range of reactions. </p><p>This trend is mirrored in Austin, where the daily number of new confirmed COVID cases fell nearly 60% between Jan. 17 and Feb. 12. (More recent data is not yet available due to case reporting delays caused by the winter storms last week.) </p><p>"From a scientific standpoint, there must be some reason for it," Makary told Austonia. "And it cannot be explained by vaccination rates or a sudden change in behavior."</p><p>Instead, he argues that natural immunity from prior infection—especially among asymptomatic patients—is more common than previously thought, in part because "antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity." He cites <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00436-4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a recent Nature article</a> by researchers at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, who found that T-cell immunity can be present even when antibodies are not detectable.</p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Seroprevalence studies estimating community immunity rates have relied on antibody testing. But this Nature article & studies from Karolinska Inst. describe why T-cell immunity can be present even when Antibodies are not present (<a href="https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz">https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz</a>).<a href="https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2">https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2</a><br/>— Marty Makary M.D., M.P.H. (@MartyMakary) <a href="https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1363599192673968136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div><p>"Not all models have to be grim and bad news," he said. "And while it appears that we're on a good path, we cannot let up our guard until we're in a safer place."<br/></p><p>Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner or the Food and Drug Administration, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/dr-scott-gottlieb-herd-immunity-by-april-estimate-too-aggressive.html" target="_blank">told CNBC on Monday</a> that he agrees with Makary's sentiment even though he thinks the path forward will not be linear, with a likely increase in cases next fall and winter. "I think things will be normal in the spring and the summer of this year," he said. </p><p>But not everyone agrees with this timeline. </p><p><strong>Local feedback</strong> </p><p>Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, a Texas epidemiologist who writes the blog Your Local Epidemiologist, responded to Makary's column, raising questions about the statistics he cited, his assumptions around natural immunity and the role of behavioral changes. "Herd immunity in 6 weeks sounds really nice, but it's important to keep realistic expectations," she wrote in <a href="https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/unfortunately-we-will-not-reach-herd" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a post published Monday</a>. "I am doubtful this will happen."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-height="1234" data-rm-shortcode-id="3958bb54cd5068490397c8be998a1af5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY4OTU4NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNjMwOTEwMn0.VnjI2PxU3pWcCriWIz0L0WyaDGm5YF4idwChQjHhN9Y/img.png?width=980" data-width="1470" id="1e897" type="lazy-image"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">Jetelina responded to individual claims made in Makary's column.</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(Your Local Epidemiologist) </small></p><p><a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/covid-immunity" target="_blank">Herd immunity</a> is achieved when a majority of a population is immune to a disease, either because they've been vaccianted against it or have recovered from it themselves. </p><p>Jetelina also disputed Makary's claim that many medical experts "are afraid to talk about herd immunity" because <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4" target="_blank">some politicians</a> suggested the U.S. let the pandemic run its course as a way to achieve it. "Epidemiologists aren't afraid to talk about herd immunity," Jetelina wrote in response. "This is, quite frankly, our job."<br/></p><p>Ultimately, Jetelina argues that there is not yet enough evidence to support Makary's claims about natural immunity, about which there remains many questions, including how it might be impacted by new variants, the threshold needed for community protection and how long it lasts after infection.</p><p>Austin Public Health said experts are still working to arrive at answers to these questions in a statement shared with Austonia. The department also pointed out that herd immunity from natural infections was never achieved for diseases such as smallpox, polio and measles, which were only eradicated through widespread vaccination efforts. </p><p>"(R)eaching herd immunity by April through vaccination efforts is very optimistic and likely not the case for our community with current state allocations," according to the statement. "While we diligently work to vaccinate everyone over the coming weeks and months, it continues to remain incredibly important to keep wearing your mask, watching your distance and washing your hands."</p><p><strong>Planning ahead</strong> </p><p>Makary, who said he frequents Austin, believes that natural immunity combined with rising vaccination rates could augur a return to normal as soon as late April or May. "Herd immunity is not binary," he said. "It's already kicking in."</p><p>Not talking about its impact is irresponsible, in Makary's view, although he understands that people may be skeptical. "It's been a very morbid season," he said. "It's hard, quite frankly, to trust projections. But at this point the trends are promising, and it's good for us to start planning accordingly. Also, I think it's important for people to have hope." </p><p>Makary argues that the U.S. pandemic strategy has been, so far, reactionary. By anticipating a plateau this spring and summer, local, state and federal governments can begin planning for a return to pre-pandemic activity. </p><p>This is not to say that another surge is not possible, especially considering the emergence of new, more contagious variants. "We need to be prepared to flip the switch on in the fall and go back to masking and maybe even distancing," he said.</p><p>But for now Markary thinks a dose of optimism is just what the doctor ordered: "By pointing out the light at the end of the tunnel, it's my hope that people will continue to be compliant with all the public health mitigation for a little bit longer until we get to that point."</p>
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Mexican free-tail bats in the Austin skyline
The long-term damage caused by Winter Storm Uri is becoming more and more evident, and Austin's bat population is no exception.
<p>The bats, which serve as both a tourist attraction and token of pride for many Austinites, have been found dead or dying en masse under bridges and overpasses throughout the city.</p><p>Austin Animal Center officials said they have heard reports of 60-100 dead bats since the storm kept temperatures subfreezing for days. </p><p>To help combat the issue, conservation groups including Austin Bat Refuge are rehabilitating the animals using insulin syringes and feeding supplies to keep bats alive.</p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Days after warm wether returned, the fallout we dreaded has come full force. We're doing our best, as are rehabbers all over Texas. If you're local, we could use more 1 ml insulin syringes (29-31 ga) and 1 ml syringes no needles. <a href="https://t.co/gR5dYNm8Fl">pic.twitter.com/gR5dYNm8Fl</a><br/>— Austin Bat Refuge (@AustinBatRefuge) <a href="https://twitter.com/AustinBatRefuge/status/1364681853702184964?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 24, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div><p>Officials are quickly realizing that mass bat deaths are happening statewide. On Wednesday, Texas Parks and Wildlife posted pictures of what looked to be hundreds of dead bats on Facebook. The department asked for the public's help in reporting bat deaths by checking under bridges, reporting how many bats can be found and putting data into the <a href="https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/winter-storm-uri-wildlife-deaths?fbclid=IwAR2w3A4nE-4yAu7r9ZXx02ptw1dhQ1Y5rwodx_2vxqlkL_LRbkBxFgz78c0" target="_blank">iNaturalist </a>project. Over 2,000 wildlife deaths have been reported as a result of Winter Storm Uri in the project.</p><div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="38c43a5f57eb7f0c8aba809be408d70c"><div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/TXWildlife/posts/5001991369871427"></div></div><p>The mass deaths are distressing to wildlife experts because bats are vital to Texas agriculture, acting as a "natural pest control" by controlling insect populations. As a result, if bats were to go extinct in the area, food prices would rise.</p><p>Austin, with its 1.5 million Congress Avenue Bridge bats, has even more ties to the animals. While the bats offer a uniquely Austin experience that attracts tourists and locals alike, they also eat up to 30,000 bugs a night, giving the city a more insect-free experience as well. The mosquito-repelling animals that reside in the city are also North America's largest urban bat population.</p><p>Austin Animal Center warned residents not to touch bats when making reports. If a dead or dying bat is found, the department said to call Austin 311 so the animals can get the care they need. Austin Bat Rescue is also asking for donations of 1 ml insulin syringes to help save more bats.</p>
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