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(Pexels)
Travis County is reporting a slightly higher COVID-19 case fatality rate than it was in early July, despite a sustained decline in the number of new reported cases and related hospitalizations.
Following weeks of steady decline and a deflating surge, Austin's COVID-19 case fatality rate—defined as reported deaths per confirmed cases—is creeping up.
With 21,214 confirmed cases and 279 reported deaths, Travis County's case fatality rate is now 1.3%, up from 1.1% on July 9.
Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott attributed the increase to the portion of older residents—around 50%—among those recently hospitalized with COVID-19.
"We know that in people particularly over the age of 60, the risk of death is substantially higher," Escott told the Austin City Council last week. "So I think this tells us … that we can expect that our death numbers are going to increase as these individuals have increased their representation among hospitalized individuals."
In Travis County, residents 60 years of age and older account for 12% of confirmed COVID-19 cases but 80% of reported deaths, according to Austin Public Health data.
Austin Public Health officials had also cautioned earlier that the case fatality rate would likely rise right around now as a result of the surge.
This is because there is a two-to-three-week lag between when new cases are reported and when those patients require hospitalization—or die from the disease. In early- to mid-July, the area saw a spike in both new cases and hospitalizations.
The county reported 24 deaths the week ending July 11, 35 the week ending July 19, and 38 the last two weeks.
A similar trend is occurring at the state level, where the case fatality rate jumped from 1.3% in early July to 1.6% today, according to Texas Department of State Health Services data.
Down, then up again
Until recently, Austin's case fatality rate had been falling. It was 1.1% on July 9, down from 1.8% on June 22 and 3.6% in late April.
APH attributed this decline to better treatments—including the antiviral drug remdesivir, convalescent plasma therapy and improved ventilator management—as well as a rising number of cases among young people, who are less likely to require hospitalization or die due to COVID-19.
Travis County has reported a steady decline in the number of daily new confirmed COVID cases and hospital admissions since around mid-July.
The seven-day moving average of daily new COVID-related hospital admissions is now 36, down from a peak of more than 75 on July 8. And the average of daily new confirmed COVID cases is 248, compared to almost 600 last month. ICU occupancy rates and ventilator use remain concerning for officials. Both metrics show more of a plateau than a decline.
The Austin metro has seen a sustained decline in COVID-related hospital admissions since early July.(Austin Public Health)
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If the FDA approves emergency use authorization of its COVID vaccine for kids, those 5 years and older will all be eligible for a shot. (Pexels)
With 2.9 million Texas children in this age group, state health officials say this is a "big factor" in reducing the virality of COVID. At a Monday press conference, the Texas Department of State Health Services released info on the rollout efforts of the vaccine for children.
Here are some of the answers to your questions.
When and where will it be available?
St. David's Healthcare staff unpack the first few shipments of its initial supply of the COVID-19 vaccine on Thursday.(St. David's Healthcare)Assuming the FDA approves this version of the Pfizer vaccine this week, vaccines will start shipping out almost immediately with the first vaccines for children likely available next week.
DSHS has already put in an order of vaccines under the federal government's "pre-order prior to launch" program.
COVID vaccine providers will begin receiving those first shipments 1-5 days after the approval. After Monday night, DSHS will have put in three different orders for vaccines. The second shipment will arrive 3-7 days after approval and the third shipment will take place 5-9 days after the approval.
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention will meet on Nov. 2 and Nov. 3 to discuss best practices for administration, allowing for the first shots to be administered after.
The state will be allocated 1.3 million doses across 814 providers in 120 counties. Individual county allocations have not been released but each county got to send a request for how many doses they may need. Federal retail pharmacies, such as H-E-B and Walgreens, are getting their own shipments.
The health department advises using its vaccine finder tool to find the nearest vaccine provider near you.
How is this version of the vaccine different than the first one?
Abbott says COVID vaccine to be available to other groups by end of MarchThe COVID vaccine for 5-11-year-olds is one-third of the dosage of the current vaccine available to those 12 years of age and older.
It is being identified as the orange cap vaccine, unlike the current purple cap. The purple cap vaccine cannot be administered to younger kids, according to the state health department.
And like the current vaccine, it is 95% effective. The first and second doses are the same and will be advised to be taken 21 days apart.
What are the side effects for children?
During clinical trials, it was reported that some kids in this age group felt pain at the injection site, fatigue and headaches.
The data submitted to the FDA shows no serious complications, such as cases of myocarditis inflammation of the heart muscle, or pericarditis, inflammation of the outer lining of the heart—rare complications that have been reported among young boys and men receiving the vaccine in other trials.
How will this affect herd immunity?
With so many children across the state, DSHS said "we need to have as many people vaccinated as possible."
State health officials said the herd immunity threshold is still being looked into, but with 3 million children soon to be able to get the vaccine, it will be a big factor in reducing the viral load in the state.
"Until we're able to add all the children, we'll see a bigger wave in stamping down the pandemic," DSHS' Imelda Garcia said during the conference.
Of those 12 and older, 72% are fully vaccinated in Travis County as of Monday.
I'm not sure if my child needs this vaccine. Why should I have them get it?
DSHS says this vaccine is important for young kids because it will protect the older population and others around them as well as themselves. The department says to ask experts and doctors questions if you are hesitant so you can be confident with your decision.
Northwest Arkansas is urging Austinites to move once again with a free one-way ticket giveaway. (Laura Figi/Austonia)
OZ Brands is the latest NW Arkansas organization to entice Austin residents to pack up and make the move. The company, which is named after the area's Ozark Mountains, promotes travel, trails and art within the region and is owned by Runway, a NW Arkansas business investment group. Runway is headed by Walmart founder Sam Walton's grandsons, Steuart and Tom Walton.
OZ is targeting Austinites with the "One Way Out" giveaway, a program that will give at least 10 Austinites a one-way Allegiant ticket from Austin to the Northwest Arkansas National Airport.
"Fall is the perfect time to visit and explore the natural beauty of the Ozarks," the program's website reads. "Why just one way, because once you're here, you won't want to leave!"
Why swap cosmopolitan Austin for NW Arkansas' forest-filled hideaway? Just like other local programs including the Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce and the NW Arkansas Council, OZ Brands is looking to capitalize on priced-out Austinites who may not be pleased with the region's unprecedented growth.
"It's okay, Austin, we get it. You're tired of the tourists, the traffic, the hassle," the website says, escalating to an all-caps message reading, "YOU NEED A BREAK, AND WE ARE HERE TO GIVE IT TO YOU."
OZ is far from the first program to offer financial incentives to move to the area. Ads for Greater Bentonville began cropping up on the feeds of Austinites weeks ago as they promoted their annual tech summit, while the NW Arkansas Council rolled out similar ads. Instead of "Austin City Limits," the organizations promised "Bentonville City Limitless." If you "wish you'd bought in Austin 10 years ago," the Council promises that the area is perfect for you.
The Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce and NW Arkansas Council have both made moves to bring Austinites to the region. (Greater Bentonville)
Like similar programs in the past, One Way Out "is an opportunity for Austinites who no longer feel at home in their own city to see for themselves the value and qualities of Northwest Arkansas ... It's for those living in the Texas city who feel the growing pains of Austin expanding beyond its limits," the company said in a press release.
The region has recently experienced substantial growth, moving to fourth on the U.S. News and World Report's list of 150 Best Places to Live in the U.S. in 2021-2022 and enjoying an influx of businesses, tech workers and startups tired of the West Coast's crowds and priciness. And with a great arts and culture scene, a lower cost of living and even a financial incentive to move to the area, talents like film producer Kristin Mann decided it was time to swap Austin for sunnier skies in Arkansas.
"I love (Austin) how it is now, don't get me wrong, but I've always fantasized about what it might have been like before it really exploded," Mann said. "And I feel like that's similar here...There's something really unique about this town, and it feels like there's something really exciting happening here."
The contest ends Oct. 29 and is open to anyone 18 and older that lives within 50 miles of Austin. Winners must book their trip within four months of the competition and finish the trip by May 1, 2022.
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