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Steady decline: COVID cases, hospital admissions, ICU occupancy rates fall across Austin area
Models show Austin's prevalence of COVID-19 is on the decline, Dr. Spencer Fox said, but it is not yet as low as it was pre-surge.
After a month of worryingly sharp increases in daily confirmed case counts, hospital admissions and ICU occupancy rates related to COVID-19, Austin is now experiencing a steady decline.
"We're doing well," Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told county commissioners on Tuesday.
As of Monday evening, the metro area reports a seven-day moving average of 47 daily COVID-related hospital admissions, down from a peak of 75.1 on July 9.
But there's still work to be done. ICUs remain near capacity, and their personnel is stressed.
"Now's not the time to dance," Dr. Escott said.
Surge lessons
Austin is at a critical point, said Dr. Spencer Fox, associate director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.
"We still have relatively high transmission compared to what we were seeing in March, April, May and even early June," he told Austonia. "But we have shown as a community the ability to start lowering transmission to a point that the epidemic is declining locally."
There is room for this decline to continue.
"The ideal situation is to push prevalence low enough that you have testing resources capable of getting timely test results and enough contact tracing resources to trace every contact of infected individuals," Fox said. "What that will do is eventually put us in a place where we can actually be tracking every infection in the city."
Austin Public Health recently expanded its testing capacity but continues to limit access and report slow turnaround times—up to 10 days—which stymie contact-tracing efforts. Dr. Escott said Tuesday that over the last week, APH has seen lower demand for COVID-19 testing, which may reflect the lower COVID-19 transmission rate across the city.
Pushing this rate lower will also make reopening schools and other businesses more feasible—so long as certain precautions are taken. Dr. Escott said a team of local experts is working on a set of risk-based guidelines for area schools and that their recommendations will likely include a phased reopening, starting at 25% occupancy.
"Let me just be clear: by reopening things, I don't mean just go back to life as normal," Dr. Fox said, adding that Austinites will have to continue to wear masks, socially distance and wash their hands to avoid another surge.
While the future remains uncertain, the recent surge—and the current decline—offers new insights into how best to avoid one in the future.
"We weren't sure that, as hospitalizations were surging, if people would actually be able to reduce transmission enough to slow that surge without having the actual stay-home order put back in place," Dr. Fox said. "It's a great sign that we were able to do that—and will help us in planning the future, potentially not needing to think about a stay-home order but rather consider public health messaging and communication to get people to respond accordingly."
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Popular
The long-awaited day is here; Austin FC takes the field with LAFC. (Austonia)
It's matchday! Austin FC—Austin's first major league sport team—kicks off its debut season in Los Angeles today after years in the making. We know how much this means to our beloved city and are taking you along with us as we journey to LA!
Austin FC writer Claire Partain and I are excited to bring you game-day coverage straight from the City of Angels. Check back here for updates, and visit our socials: @austonianews for the latest.
5 p.m: Kickoff!
It's finally here! Claire will be updating Austonia's Twitter account live. And we'll post her game recap after the game. Best of luck Verdes!
4:40 p.m: Excitement radiates back home
Watch parties are in plenty supply back home. Austonia's Laura Figi visited Circle Brewing Co. and found a crowd of excited supporters.
4:20 p.m: Austin FC supporters are in the stadium
Although the Banc of California Stadium is hosting the match at limited capacity, we see some green in the stands ahead of kickoff. Just moments away from the Austin FC's debut!
~3:20 p.m: Austin FC's team bus enters the stadium grounds
With a warm welcome from Los Verdes, Austin FC players were welcomed into the Banc of California Stadium.
~1 p.m: Los Verdes in LA
(Rigo Rodriguez/Los Verdes)
Austin FC supporters are making their presence known in LA, including the Los Verdes group.
Los Verdes members started having match-day fun around the area this morning with brunch. We'll be joining them about an hour before the game outside the stadium to share some of their excitement. We'll post immediately to Austonia's Instagram.
11:45 a.m: We landed!
View from hotel room where we're staying; the stadium digital sign can be seen in the right corner. (Sonia Garcia/Austonia)
Switching over to pacific time, we're here and it's almost like no time went by. It's 9:45 a.m. here.
We've been in contact with Los Verdes, an Austin FC supporter group, who is also here in LA counting down to kickoff.
8:20 a.m: LA bound
Like many of you, we've been looking forward to this moment for, let's just say, a very long time. Today, we woke up bright and early, headed to Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and hopped on a flight to LA.
A gloomy day in Austin with a very quiet airport, we're headed to sunny skies in California.
As we wait for the game to start at 4:30 p.m., check out Claire's preview of the game with a predicted lineup and timeline of the long journey to get here.
From 'MLS in Austin' to Austin FC's first match: A guide to the first game and how we got here
Years before the city of Austin went Verde, thousands of the city's soccer fans formed a supporters' group—MLS in Austin—for a team that didn't even exist yet.
Now, as the team's catchphrase suggests, those same fans are #LISTOS as they prepare to see their team on national television at Austin FC's debut on Saturday.
What to expect
The team will face a significant opponent in LAFC, who is projected at No. 2 in the league's power rankings. Austin FC currently sits at No. 21.
"LAFC has one of the best attacking teams in the league," Head Coach Josh Wolff said. "They will punish you. They've never been shy of putting up goals, and again, I expect them to be one of the best teams in the league this year."
The club has lived up to Wolff's words: in just their second season of existence, LAFC took first in the Western Conference and were Supporters' Shield winners in 2019.
Austin FC will need to hold off LAFC captain Carlos Vela, a versatile winger/attacking midfielder who won the Most Valuable Player title in 2019, as well as high-scoring forward Diego Rossi.
Austin FC starting lineup vs. LAFC
(Claire Partain/Austonia)
Meanwhile, LAFC will face challenges in DP Cecilio Dominguez and midfielder Alex Ring, the former NYCFC "ringleader" who wears the captain's armband for his new team. We still don't have any updates for starting forward Rodney Redes, who may or not be playing Saturday due to a "ding" on his knee.
If Redes is fine, we think he'll stay at forward, where he's been excelling throughout preseason. If not, a more experienced Kekuta Manneh might take to the pitch in his stead. Midfielder Jared Stroud is also in the running after he went in for an injured Redes against San Antonio FC on April 10.
While Captain Alex Ring and DPs Tomas Pochettino and Dominguez are shoe-ins for the starting lineup, some other positions are up in the air.
Twenty-year-old Daniel Pereira, Austin FC's No. 1 SuperDraft pick, has done even better than expected in preliminary scrimmages. He's still young, however, and Austin FC recruited him more for his depth than immediate starting appeal. If Pereira doesn't start, it's likely to be Diego Fagundez who takes the starting spot.
Another young potential starter comes in 22-year-old Jhohan Romana, a sturdy defender who has shown inconsistency in preseason. The backline is a clear weak spot for the team so far, and while Romana shows promise, Wolff may look for experience in Julio Cascante for their first starting lineup.
Finally, goalies Brad Stuver and Andrew Tarbell are neck-and-neck in the race for a starting spot. We put Stuver on here for his preseason performance, but neither would be a surprise as starting goalkeepers.
How we got here
It's hard to put into words how monumental it is for these supporters to see their own team one day away from its historic opening match, but the excitement can be felt across the city.
To put things in perspective, here's a timeline of events that brought us here, from "MLS in Austin" all the way up to Saturday's opener.
Where to watch
While Austin FC's first season will officially be underway, their inaugural match will be nearly 1,500 miles away from their home city.
That's no problem for some fans, including those in Austin FC fan group Los Verdes. A group of dedicated supporters are going to the West Coast to welcome their team into the stadium. While LAFC isn't officially allowing Austin fans in due to COVID protocol, some are still searching for a way to watch their beloved team take the pitch for the first time.
Meanwhile, thousands of dedicated fans are also staying home to support their club. Austin FC's first official watch party is sold out with over 1,000 RSVPs, and Austin Anthem is holding a 1000 plus-person watch party as well. For a full list of Austin FC watch parties and participating pubs, click here.
For those staying home, the match will be broadcast nationally on FOX and FOX Deportes at 5 p.m. on Saturday.
Don't miss out on the game!
Live, from LA! Austonia's Claire Partain and Sonia Garcia bring you Austin FC's first-ever official match
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