austonia newsletter
Most viewed
Steady decline: COVID cases, hospital admissions, ICU occupancy rates fall across Austin area
Models show Austin's prevalence of COVID-19 is on the decline, Dr. Spencer Fox said, but it is not yet as low as it was pre-surge.
After a month of worryingly sharp increases in daily confirmed case counts, hospital admissions and ICU occupancy rates related to COVID-19, Austin is now experiencing a steady decline.
"We're doing well," Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told county commissioners on Tuesday.
As of Monday evening, the metro area reports a seven-day moving average of 47 daily COVID-related hospital admissions, down from a peak of 75.1 on July 9.
But there's still work to be done. ICUs remain near capacity, and their personnel is stressed.
"Now's not the time to dance," Dr. Escott said.
Surge lessons
Austin is at a critical point, said Dr. Spencer Fox, associate director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.
"We still have relatively high transmission compared to what we were seeing in March, April, May and even early June," he told Austonia. "But we have shown as a community the ability to start lowering transmission to a point that the epidemic is declining locally."
There is room for this decline to continue.
"The ideal situation is to push prevalence low enough that you have testing resources capable of getting timely test results and enough contact tracing resources to trace every contact of infected individuals," Fox said. "What that will do is eventually put us in a place where we can actually be tracking every infection in the city."
Austin Public Health recently expanded its testing capacity but continues to limit access and report slow turnaround times—up to 10 days—which stymie contact-tracing efforts. Dr. Escott said Tuesday that over the last week, APH has seen lower demand for COVID-19 testing, which may reflect the lower COVID-19 transmission rate across the city.
Pushing this rate lower will also make reopening schools and other businesses more feasible—so long as certain precautions are taken. Dr. Escott said a team of local experts is working on a set of risk-based guidelines for area schools and that their recommendations will likely include a phased reopening, starting at 25% occupancy.
"Let me just be clear: by reopening things, I don't mean just go back to life as normal," Dr. Fox said, adding that Austinites will have to continue to wear masks, socially distance and wash their hands to avoid another surge.
While the future remains uncertain, the recent surge—and the current decline—offers new insights into how best to avoid one in the future.
"We weren't sure that, as hospitalizations were surging, if people would actually be able to reduce transmission enough to slow that surge without having the actual stay-home order put back in place," Dr. Fox said. "It's a great sign that we were able to do that—and will help us in planning the future, potentially not needing to think about a stay-home order but rather consider public health messaging and communication to get people to respond accordingly."
- Travis County COVID-19 death rate decreasing despite surge ... ›
- Austin sees surge in coronavirus cases after reopening - austonia ›
- Everything we know about COVID-19 in Austin right now - austonia ›
- Austin's COVID hospitalizations appear to be plateauing - austonia ›
- With rising hospitalizations, Austin officials warn of surge - austonia ›
- Everything we know about COVID-19 in Austin right now - austonia ›
- Everything we know about COVID-19 in Austin right now - austonia ›
- Everything we know about COVID-19 in Austin right now ›
- Everything we know about COVID-19 in Austin right now - austonia ›
- November COVID projections for Austin improve but concerns linger - austonia ›
Popular
Due to shipping delays, allocations of the Pfizer vaccine scheduled to be distributed in Texas on Monday will now arrive on Tuesday.
- A 'handful' of ineligible people got the COVID vaccine in Austin ... ›
- Austin healthcare offering COVID-19 vaccine waitlists - austonia ›
- Everything we know about Austin's COVID vaccine rollout - austonia ›
- Texas widens COVID vaccine access, but Austin doses are limited ... ›
The Texas Department of State Health Services will allocate 333,650 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to 260 providers this week, with the bulk assigned to hub providers that are focused on widespread community distribution events. Eight of those providers are in Travis County.
- UT professor played role in Pfizer and Moderna's COVID vaccines ... ›
- Austin Public Health prepares for COVID vaccine distribution ... ›
- Austin area businesses required to reduce capacity to 50% - austonia ›
- Austin Public Health to receive 12,000 doses of COVID vaccine ... ›
- Texas changes vaccine rollout strategy as Austin providers run out ... ›
- Austin Public Health debuts COVID vaccine sign-up list - austonia ›
- Everything we know about Austin's COVID vaccine rollout - austonia ›
By Sami Sparber
Texas-based anti-vaccine organization Informed Consent Action Network was among five anti-vaccine groups that collectively received more than $850,000 in federal loans from the Paycheck Protection Program, the Washington Post reported Monday. The organization received $166,000 in May 2020, according to founder Del Bigtree.