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As COVID vaccines remain limited, a surge in Austin threatens to exceed ICU capacity by mid-January
The COVID-19 situation continues to worsen in the Austin metro, and models show that area hospitals could exceed their ICU capacity by Jan. 15.
"What we experienced over the summer is nothing compared to what we will experience over the next two months if we don't change things very quickly," Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said Tuesday. "The strategy is not working. The state strategy is not working."
Over the last month, the average number of new COVID cases confirmed in Travis County has increased 98% to 537. The average number of daily COVID-related hospital admissions has grown even more quickly, increasing by 140% to 77 over the same time period.
The positivity rate in Travis County is 15.5%, up from 12.7% last week and on track to exceed 20% if residents don't change their behavior.
Because of Christmas and New Year's festivities, Escott anticipates that the county will "break many new records" over the next few weeks as cases related to such gatherings develop.
The COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin projects that the metro will exceed its ICU capacity by Jan. 15, if transmission continues at its current rate.
"My expectation is that it may happen before that," Escott said.
This is particularly concerning giving the concurrent surges happening across Texas, which means that there are fewer healthcare workers available to provide additional support in Austin should the need arise.
"The entire state is in surge," Escott said. "The entire state is in a state of emergency."
This map shows the state's trauma service areas. Those with red marks have seen at least 15% of their hospital capacity taken up by COVID patients for at least seven consecutive days. Those with yellow marks, including area O, which includes Travis County, are approaching that threshold. (Austin Public Health)
If Austinites do not heed his and other public health officials' advice, they could end up in a similar situation as is unfolding in Los Angeles County, where the local emergency medical services agency directed ambulance crews not to transport patients with little chance of survival to hospitals because of oxygen supply issues. Other patients are spending hours in ambulances outside of hospitals, waiting for a bed to open.
"It's important for folks to understand that the same thing will happen here … unless we make substantial change right now," Escott said.
What Austinites can do
In the midst of this surge, Escott pleaded with Austinites to help carve out a path toward a peak, from which point things could start to improve.
To do this, residents should follow the Stage 5 recommendations issued by Austin Public Health:
- Not gathering with individuals outside on your own household
- Limiting dining and shopping to essential trips only
- Avoiding non-essential travel
Because the Texas Education Agency has tied state funding of public schools to in-person operations, local officials have avoided ordering a school shutdown. Instead, Escott strongly urged Austin parents to opt into virtual learning for the next two weeks, at least, in an effort to curb transmission. He said his own teenage son was learning from home this week.
The state of Texas Supreme Court recently blocked Austin-area orders that restricting dining in and drinking at restaurants over the New Year's weekend.
Within the ability to mandate such restrictions, Escott recommended that businesses operate through contactless options, such as curbside delivery, as a way to mitigate longer-term damage.
"If we had the ability, this would be the time where we would want to restrict activities," he said, alluding to state orders prohibiting such local policies. "I know that lots of folks are concerned about the impact on our businesses. I'm concerned about the impact on lives … and the consequences of having a community that faces a surge that lasts for months."
A vaccine update
In late December, state officials mandated that vaccine providers expand access to members of Group 1B, which includes people age 65 and older as well as those with a chronic illness, in addition to Group 1A, which includes frontline healthcare workers and first responders.
As a result, many local hospitals, pharmacies and other vaccine providers were caught with more demand than supply and are only vaccinating members of the 1A group.
"The problem is we have a shortage of vaccine," APH Director Stephanie Hayden said Tuesday.
Until the vaccine supply increases, APH is focused on setting up a preregistration portal and increasing the number of local providers enrolled in the state's vaccine distribution system. The department is also working to identify large-scale distribution sites, such as the Travis County Expo Center, that could be used for mass vaccination events.
County Commissioner Jeff Travillion, Council Member Natasha Harper-Madison and Council Member-elect Vanessa Fuentes expressed support for this idea.
I third that motion. https://t.co/8oLXeA3NpQ— Natasha Harper-Madison (@Natasha Harper-Madison)1609867205.0
"Everyone wants a vaccine," Hayden said. "It's a great problem for us to have."
Popular
After two years of no in-person events, Austin festival South by Southwest has agreed to give 50% of ownership to P-MRC, a Los Angeles company that controls publishing operations for Rolling Stone and Billboard.
The media venture was founded in 2020 and is part-owned by Jay Penske, racer Roger Penske's son and head of Penske Racing and Penske Media.
The move comes after the COVID-19 pandemic left the festival with two years worth of hemorrhaging funds. SXSW organizers were left scrambling for solutions in March 2020 when the city of Austin canceled the festival at the onset of the pandemic. One-third of the festival's 175 year-round employees were laid off, and the festival ran a shortened virtual event in 2021.
SXSW CEO and co-founder Roland Swenson said in a statement that the company is grateful to get aid when they need it most and that they are now looking to the future.
"It has been an incredibly tough period for small businesses, SXSW included," Swenson said. "When Jay Penske approached us with an interest in becoming a partner, it was a true lifeline for us. Both of our companies share a passion for producing high-quality content that helps shape modern culture, so this feels like a natural alliance."
Both of Austin's big-name festivals are now in the hands of out-of-town buyers. In 2014, homegrown festival Austin City Limits was bought in part by LiveNation, who took 51% ownership in Austin live promoter C3 Presents.
.@MLS Commissioner @thesoccerdon and @AustinFC's Minister of Culture and part-owner Matthew @McConaughey will discuss how the League is deepening fan engagement, and how Clubs are becoming cultural mainstays at 10am on Channel 3. ⚽ #SXSW pic.twitter.com/2XFj4XEdwL
— SXSW (@sxsw) March 18, 2021
While SXSW was still online-only this year, it was aided in part by big-name guests such as Matthew McConaughey, Willie Nelson, Chance the Rapper and Bill Hader.
The fest has captured the essence of Austin arts and culture for 34 years, and it doesn't plan on stopping now. With P-MRC by its side, SXSW said it plans on keeping its unique identity but expanding operations as it prepares for an in-person celebration next spring.
"Since 1987, SXSW has been the world's premier festival centered at the convergence of tech, media, film, and music," Penske said. "Today SXSW continues to be one of the most recognized brands for empowering creative talent and bringing together the brightest creators of our time. As part of this significant investment, we plan to build upon SXSW's incredible foundation while extending the platform further digitally and assisting Roland and his incredible team to bring their vision to even greater heights."
With their future restored, SXSW's newest slogan rings truer than ever: "See you next year at SXSW!"
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APD captures suspect of domestic violence killing Stephen Broderick. (Austin Police Department/Twitter)
Stephen Broderick is now in police custody for a suspected domestic violence incident that killed three in northwest Austin on Sunday.
After initially being called an active shooting incident, joint local law enforcement and more than 75 FBI agents proceeded with an almost day-long manhunt with three helicopters and on-ground teams for former Travis County deputy Broderick. Police captured him after a 911 caller reported a suspicious man walking along U.S. 290, where he was taken into custody.
Police believe the victims, who have been identified as two Hispanic women and one Black man, knew their assailant. A child was involved but is now safely in police custody. Two of the victims have been identified as former and current Elgin ISD students: Alyssa Broderick and Willie Simmons III.
The school district released a statement offering its condolences to the families. Alyssa was enrolled until October 2020 and played on the basketball team. Simmons was a senior at Elgin High School where he was captain of the football team and had been recruited to play football at the University of North Texas.
Travis County Sheriff Sally Hernandez released the following statement on the incident: "I'm truly heartbroken that a former Travis County Sheriff's Office Deputy is the suspect in such a horrific incident. TCSO is standing by to provide any, and all assistance we can to the families of the victims in their time of need. I'm proud of the integrity and professionalism shown by the men and women of TCSO, APD and other law enforcement agencies, who worked tirelessly throughout the night to locate Stephen Broderick. I'm especially grateful to the vigilant citizen who called 911 after seeing Broderick, and to the Manor PD officers and TCSO deputies who took him into custody this morning."
APD @Chief_Chacon provides updated media briefing in relation to Great Hills Trail incident. - PIO8 https://t.co/47siNWhARI
— Austin Police Department (@Austin_Police) April 18, 2021
During a press briefing at 4:45 p.m. on Sunday, Interim Police Chief Joe Chacon said law enforcement was on the scene for several hours investigating the incident with 41-year-old Broderick.
"We're very sorry that obviously this has happened and we continue to try and locate this individual, we are transitioning from a search in this area to a fugitive search and those efforts will continue until this person is located," Chacon said. "I don't want anyone to think that we're packing up and going home. We're going to continue to look for this individual because he continues to pose a threat to this community."
#texasshooting #masshooting Arboretum shooting Austin. pic.twitter.com/SkIsgDoYHt
— Jamie Hammonds (@jamie_hammonds5) April 18, 2021
This story has been updated at 8 a.m. Monday to include the latest information.
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Formula 1 is returning to Florida for the first time since 1959, announcing that the brand-new Miami Grand Prix will join the calendar in 2022 and Austin will no longer be the only F1 race in the U.S.
Held at the Hard Rock Stadium complex in Miami Gardens, this will be the first race in the Sunshine State in 62 years. With a new track setup, F1 will loop the stadium, home of the NFL's Miami Dolphins.
Excited for @F1 @f1miami @HardRockStadium - a Global Entertainment Destination. This event will bring opportunities for so many and will be world-class. Thank you to @gregmaffei #chasecarey #stefanodomenicali @MayorRHarris @Ogilbert @CommishDiaz @MayorDaniella pic.twitter.com/n6dDDD1cPX
— Tom Garfinkel (@TomGarfinkel) April 18, 2021
The new 3.36 mile circuit has 19 corners, three straights and potential for three DRS zones, with expected top speeds of 198 mph.
Now with two races in the U.S., F1 President Stefano Domenicali said they will avoid having back-to-back events by keeping the Miami Grand Prix separate from the U.S. Grand Prix, which is held at Austin's Circuit of the Americas.
The date of the race has yet to be confirmed, though Domenicali said he expects the first race in a 10-year deal to take place in the second quarter of 2022. Austin's race will take place on Oct. 24 this year.
"The USA is a key growth market for us, and we are greatly encouraged by our growing reach in the U.S. which will be further supported by this exciting second race," Domenicali said.
Miami will mark the 11th race location in the U.S. since the Championship began in 1950: Circuit of The Americas in Austin; Dallas, Texas; Indianapolis, Indiana; Sebring, Florida; Riverside, California; Watkins Glen, New York; Long Beach, California; Las Vegas, Nevada; Detroit, Michigan and Phoenix, Arizona. COTA was first opened in 2012.
Domenicali said F1 will be working with the FIA and the Hard Rock Stadium to leave a lasting impact on the community: discounted tickets for residents, a program to support local businesses and a STEM education program through F1 in schools.
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