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"We will see in April the true effect of the pandemic," said Romeo Manzanilla, AboR president. (Katharine Jose)
Home sales got off to a strong start in the Austin-Round Rock market in 2020.
On Jan. 2, Zillow declared Austin the nation's hottest market due to the city's affordability, low unemployment, attractiveness to young people and booming tech industry. Even March sales figures were in the black, showing a 2.2% increase over the previous March, as the coronavirus pandemic grew.
Austin homes were rapidly appreciating, with median sales prices up 11.7% over the previous March. It was a bubbling sellers' market.
"March was a hangover from a fast start," said Romeo Manzanilla, president of the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) "Everything that was in the pipeline closed. We will see in April the true effect of the pandemic."
Romeo Manzanilla, president of the Austin Board of RealtorsRomeo Manzanilla
Of course the COVID-19 outbreak has had more deadly consequences, but it came at a bad time for sellers and buyers. The peak time for home sales is April through August.
Depending on shelter-in-place and restrictions on travel, Manzanilla predicts the Austin market will recover in the fourth quarter, perhaps active even in the holiday season. "Being both optimistic and realistic, there will be a lot of pent-up demand," he said. Sales numbers could be in line with last year, he added.
Manzanilla, 47 years old, moved to Austin in 1999. He is the broker-in-charge of Realty Austin, which is owned by Jonathan and Yvette Boatwright. The business has 560 agents and reported $3.45 billion in total sales in 2019. Manzanilla and his wife Monica live in Avery Ranch.
This still could be a good year for you if you're a certain kind of buyer. Mortgage interest rates are low, ranging from 3.2 to 3.9%, depending on the duration of the mortgage. Yet, jumbo loans—those exceeding $510,400 in Texas—have all but vanished.
Favored in today's market is the luxury real estate buyer who is liquid. "Instead of competing with 10 offers, they may find three or four offers on a home," said Manzanilla.
Not favored is the highly-leveraged borrower with drooping stock holdings and an unsteady job situation. "It's still a sellers' market," said Manzanilla, "just not quite as unbalanced [in favor of the seller] as it has been."
Sellers are more likely to negotiate extensions on closings, with appraisal and approval processes slowed by shelter-in-place and heavy demand for refinancing.
ABoR is advising agents to comply with social distancing, foregoing open houses and individual house calls in favor of pictures and virtual tours on web-based listings. Drones are being used for flyovers to substitute for walk-arounds. Online research by buyers has picked up, said Manzanilla. Realtors "should follow the CDC guidelines to minimize exposure to clients," he said, "and anything that puts you in a precarious situation."
Among his own clients, he added, a lot of prospective sellers are withholding their homes from the market, and those who have listed are holding firm on asking prices. Sellers know that there is a diminished pool of homes.
In good times and bad, Manzanilla loves real estate and interacting with clients. The best and worst of real estate? "Some clients you absolutely love. Some clients you absolutely love when a transaction ends."
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Historic preservationists, for their part, overwhelmingly support historic zoning, which would preserve the buildings in perpetuity. The Historic Landmark Commission unanimously voted to initiate historic zoning in July, citing architectural significance, landscape features and association to historic figures. City staffers recommend historic zoning, calling both structures one-of-a-kind examples of vernacular architecture.
Tarrytown neighbors have also banded together to stop the demolition. Many have written letters, and a few spoke at the meeting. “How could anyone buy this property with the intent of destroying it?” Ila Falvey said. “I think it’s an architectural treasure.”
Michael Whellan, an attorney representing the property owner, said that the claims made by preservationists are shaky. The buildings are run down, he said, and have had substantial renovations. A structural engineer hired by the owner said any attempt at preservation would involve tearing down and rebuilding – an undertaking Whellan said would likely cost millions.
Whellan also argued that any historical significance derived from the property’s association with Delisle and longtime owner C.H. Slator is dubious. “These men are not noted for any civic, philanthropic or historic impact,” he said.
What’s more, according to Whellan, Slator likely participated in segregation as the owner of the Tavern on North Lamar Boulevard between 1953 and 1960.
A city staffer, however, said she found no evidence to support the claim. “We would never landmark a property where a segregationist lived, or there was a racist person,” Kimberly Collins with the Historic Preservation Office said.
Commissioner Awais Azhar couldn’t support historic zoning in part due to lingering uncertainty about Slator. “Focusing on that factor is not here to disparage an individual or family. It is not about playing the race card. This is an important assertion for us to consider as Planning commissioners,” Azhar said.
Commissioner Carmen Llanes Pulido said that allegations of racism should come as no surprise. “We’re talking about white male property owners in the 1950s, in Austin, on the west side – and of course they were racist,” she said. But she argued that allowing the house to be demolished based on these grounds does nothing to help people of color who have been harmed by racism and segregation.
The question of tax breaks was also controversial. Michael Gaudini, representing the property owner, said that the tax breaks associated with historic zoning would exacerbate inequality by shifting property tax burdens to less affluent communities. City staffers estimate that the property, appraised at $3.5 million, would get either a $8,500 or $16,107 property tax break annually, depending on whether a homestead exemption is applied.
Commissioner Grayson Cox preferred the commission focus not on tax breaks but on whether the structures merit preservation. “To me, nothing in the historic preservation criteria lists, is this person deserving of a tax break or not?”
Azhar, on the other hand, said he plans to propose a code amendment getting rid of city property tax breaks for historic properties.
The commission fell one vote short of recommending historic zoning, with six commissioners in support and three opposed. Azhar and commissioners Claire Hempel and Greg Anderson voted against.
The odds of City Council zoning over an owner’s wishes are slim. Nine out of 11 members must vote in favor, and there have only been a handful of such cases over the past several decades.
