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A&M Economist: Austin's real estate market 'beginning to normalize'

Austin's median home price rose nearly 20% from May 2021-2022 despite a sharp increase in inventory. (Mueller Austin/Facebook)

Active listings in Austin swelled by nearly 150% May 2021-2022 as the region begins to recover from the "dangerously low" housing inventory of the pandemic housing frenzy, according to the latest Austin Board of Realtors report.


For the first time since September 2020, the metro saw 1.2 months of available inventory, up from a critically low 0.4 months in early 2020. Still, median home prices continued their ascent and increased almost 20% year-over-year to tie April's record of $550,000.

Austin's inventory rose by 0.7 months form May 2021-2022. (Austin Board of Realtors)


While Austin's housing market has seen some signs of decline—residential home sales declined 6.7% year-over-year—available homes still spent 15 days on the market, a day less than May 2021. Texas A&M University research economist Adam Perdue said that while a crash is not imminent, prices should begin to stabilize as the number of available homes continues to increase.

“The Austin region saw dangerously low levels of inventory, as low as 0.4 months of inventory in January 2021, so this slight increase in inventory and active listings point to the market beginning to normalize," Perdue said. "While year-over-year price increases will continue to remain high, we project them to fall slightly lower than the long-term trend we’ve monitored over the past two years.”

Still, Perdue said that Austin's "bubble" isn't likely to burst anytime soon.

“The Austin housing market has experienced a multitude of factors that have influenced its current state, one of those being the high influx of companies and individuals migrating to the area both from within Texas and out-of-state, which has contributed to a strong and diverse economy attractive to people seeking opportunity," Perdue said. "These migrations of individuals and companies will continue to happen, especially as Austin is relatively affordable compared to some out-of-state markets when it comes to owning a home and operating a business."

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