Never miss a story
Sign up for our free daily morning email...
...and afternoon text update
×
austonia newsletter
Get connected with our daily update
Most viewed
Travis County (99.6% of votes counted)
Donald J. Trump (REP, incumbent): 159,907 votes (26.5%)
Joseph R. Biden (DEM): 432,062 votes (71.7%)
Texas (94.6.3% of votes counted)
Donald J. Trump (REP, incumbent): 5,834,096 votes (52.3%)
Joseph R. Biden (DEM): 5,163,446 votes (46.6%)
These results are as of 5:30 a.m. with all Texas counties counted.
From Your Site Articles
Popular
(Mwyzykowski0821/Wikimedia)
Citing a 77% decline in new COVID cases nationally since early January, Dr. Martin Makary, a surgical oncologist and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, expects COVID-19 "will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life."
<p>Makary wrote about this forecast in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731" target="_blank">a recent opinion column</a> for the Wall Street Journal, setting off a range of reactions. </p><p>This trend is mirrored in Austin, where the daily number of new confirmed COVID cases fell nearly 60% between Jan. 17 and Feb. 12. (More recent data is not yet available due to case reporting delays caused by the winter storms last week.) </p><p>"From a scientific standpoint, there must be some reason for it," Makary told Austonia. "And it cannot be explained by vaccination rates or a sudden change in behavior."</p><p>Instead, he argues that natural immunity from prior infection—especially among asymptomatic patients—is more common than previously thought, in part because "antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity." He cites <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00436-4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a recent Nature article</a> by researchers at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, who found that T-cell immunity can be present even when antibodies are not detectable.</p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Seroprevalence studies estimating community immunity rates have relied on antibody testing. But this Nature article & studies from Karolinska Inst. describe why T-cell immunity can be present even when Antibodies are not present (<a href="https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz">https://t.co/URuVZPkJLz</a>).<a href="https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2">https://t.co/JvHgft6DP2</a><br/>— Marty Makary M.D., M.P.H. (@MartyMakary) <a href="https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1363599192673968136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div><p>"Not all models have to be grim and bad news," he said. "And while it appears that we're on a good path, we cannot let up our guard until we're in a safer place."<br/></p><p>Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner or the Food and Drug Administration, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/dr-scott-gottlieb-herd-immunity-by-april-estimate-too-aggressive.html" target="_blank">told CNBC on Monday</a> that he agrees with Makary's sentiment even though he thinks the path forward will not be linear, with a likely increase in cases next fall and winter. "I think things will be normal in the spring and the summer of this year," he said. </p><p>But not everyone agrees with this timeline. </p><p><strong>Local feedback</strong> </p><p>Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, a Texas epidemiologist who writes the blog Your Local Epidemiologist, responded to Makary's column, raising questions about the statistics he cited, his assumptions around natural immunity and the role of behavioral changes. "Herd immunity in 6 weeks sounds really nice, but it's important to keep realistic expectations," she wrote in <a href="https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/unfortunately-we-will-not-reach-herd" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a post published Monday</a>. "I am doubtful this will happen."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-height="1234" data-rm-shortcode-id="3958bb54cd5068490397c8be998a1af5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY4OTU4NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNjMwOTEwMn0.VnjI2PxU3pWcCriWIz0L0WyaDGm5YF4idwChQjHhN9Y/img.png?width=980" data-width="1470" id="1e897" type="lazy-image"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">Jetelina responded to individual claims made in Makary's column.</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(Your Local Epidemiologist) </small></p><p><a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/covid-immunity" target="_blank">Herd immunity</a> is achieved when a majority of a population is immune to a disease, either because they've been vaccianted against it or have recovered from it themselves. </p><p>Jetelina also disputed Makary's claim that many medical experts "are afraid to talk about herd immunity" because <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4" target="_blank">some politicians</a> suggested the U.S. let the pandemic run its course as a way to achieve it. "Epidemiologists aren't afraid to talk about herd immunity," Jetelina wrote in response. "This is, quite frankly, our job."<br/></p><p>Ultimately, Jetelina argues that there is not yet enough evidence to support Makary's claims about natural immunity, about which there remains many questions, including how it might be impacted by new variants, the threshold needed for community protection and how long it lasts after infection.</p><p>Austin Public Health said experts are still working to arrive at answers to these questions in a statement shared with Austonia. The department also pointed out that herd immunity from natural infections was never achieved for diseases such as smallpox, polio and measles, which were only eradicated through widespread vaccination efforts. </p><p>"(R)eaching herd immunity by April through vaccination efforts is very optimistic and likely not the case for our community with current state allocations," according to the statement. "While we diligently work to vaccinate everyone over the coming weeks and months, it continues to remain incredibly important to keep wearing your mask, watching your distance and washing your hands."</p><p><strong>Planning ahead</strong> </p><p>Makary, who said he frequents Austin, believes that natural immunity combined with rising vaccination rates could augur a return to normal as soon as late April or May. "Herd immunity is not binary," he said. "It's already kicking in."</p><p>Not talking about its impact is irresponsible, in Makary's view, although he understands that people may be skeptical. "It's been a very morbid season," he said. "It's hard, quite frankly, to trust projections. But at this point the trends are promising, and it's good for us to start planning accordingly. Also, I think it's important for people to have hope." </p><p>Makary argues that the U.S. pandemic strategy has been, so far, reactionary. By anticipating a plateau this spring and summer, local, state and federal governments can begin planning for a return to pre-pandemic activity. </p><p>This is not to say that another surge is not possible, especially considering the emergence of new, more contagious variants. "We need to be prepared to flip the switch on in the fall and go back to masking and maybe even distancing," he said.</p><p>But for now Markary thinks a dose of optimism is just what the doctor ordered: "By pointing out the light at the end of the tunnel, it's my hope that people will continue to be compliant with all the public health mitigation for a little bit longer until we get to that point."</p>
From Your Site Articles
- Vaccine week 11: 31,250 doses headed to Austin, delayed ... ›
- Austin vaccine recipients feel relief, guilt amid slow rollout - austonia ›
- Everything we know about Austin's COVID vaccine rollout - austonia ›
Related Articles Around the Web
Keep Reading
Show less
(Bob Daemmrich)
Travis County is the ninth most at-risk county in the nation for severe vaccine deficits and the second most at-risk in the state, according to a study by data science company Cogitativo.
<p>The report, titled <a href="https://c212.net/c/link/?t=0&l=en&o=3076834-1&h=715992383&u=http%3A%2F%2Fcogitativo.com%2Fnewsroom%2Fpdf5.php&a=No+Relief+in+Sight%3A+The+Growing+Crisis+of+Vaccine+Shortages+in+U.S.+Counties%2C" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">No Relief in Sight: The Growing Crisis of Vaccine Shortages in U.S. Counties,</a> was conducted to see if vaccine allocation is being done most effectively with the CDC's current methods. Cogitativo used a simulation of vaccine allocation in the 10 most populous states, assuming there was a supply of 100 million doses, and compared allocation strategies by counties recommended by the CDC to their own strategy.</p><p>The CDC's Advisory on Immunization Practices recommends using priority populations that are predetermined (such as those who meet 1A and 1B qualifications in Travis County) and the Social Vulnerability Index to figure out who gets vaccinated first. Cogitativo, however, simulated a model using county clinical data, social determinants of health and peer-reviewed COVID-19 medical research.</p><p>The difference between the two is outstanding. </p><p>In the controlled setting of the simulation, the CDC's methods caused a shortage of up to 4.9 million doses nationally. Almost 640,000 lives would be saved using the Cogitativo methods, according to the simulation, and another 4.4 million hospitalizations could be prevented. </p><p>When the CDC method is used, 34% of counties, including Travis County, see a vaccine shortage. Travis County would have administered 106,678 fewer doses with the CDC's approach. Harris County leads Texas for most deficit doses.</p><p>Because Cogitativo uses clinical data to determine priority groups, the data company's CEO Gary Velasquez said in a statement that the shortage impacts vulnerable populations not getting the vaccine access they need. </p><p>"The data is clear: Without a more precise approach to allocating the vaccine, many of the most vulnerable—often in communities of color and rural areas—will be overlooked," Velasquez said. "To meet the most complex public health challenge of our time, states must use the most powerful, precise tools available so that every resident, whether they live in a city or in a rural community, has equal access to the vaccine." </p><p>To former Chief Medical Officer of Blue Shield of California Dr. Meredith Matthews, the study can be used to make sure those in disadvantaged locations never have to go without the vaccine. </p><p>"Access to the COVID-19 vaccine should not depend on where you live," Matthews said. "Using science and data can help states ensure that everyone has access, and that no community is left behind."</p><p>Austin officials concerned about inequities in distribution have advocated for <a href="https://austonia.com/inequities-in-austin-vaccine" target="_blank">changes to the local vaccine rollout</a>, including pop-up distribution events at community centers, such as fire stations and schools, for the Black and Hispanic population most hit by the virus. Additionally, APH Director Stephanie Hayden-Howard has previously said that she has concerns that the city's Black and Hispanic populations were being underserved when compared to their community size.</p><p>"We remain deeply concerned that vaccine distribution is not reaching individuals who identify as Hispanic or African American, especially given the pandemic's disproportionate impact to these communities," Hayden-Howard said. "We must expand current efforts to provide vaccines to more members of our Hispanic and African American communities, especially in areas where disease transmission is high."</p><p>According to Austin Public Health's vaccine distribution dashboard, 31.7% who've received a dose were 60 or older; 7.6% of those vaccinated were Black, 18.1% were Hispanic of any race, 5.1% were Asian and 68.2% were White. </p>
From Your Site Articles
Keep Reading
Show less
Late (Tuesday) the City of Austin's outside attorney filed a response to the plaintiffs' (called relators in legal terms) request for a writ of mandamus to force the City Council to amend ballot language for Proposition B.
Proposition B will be on the May 1 ballot as a result of Save Austin Now's petition drive. If voter approved, the resulting ordinance would ban: camping in a public areas, soliciting in designated areas and sitting or lying down on public sidewalks.
Read the full story at The Austin Bulldog.
