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Austin has seen explosive growth in the last decade and was the fastest-growing large metro from 2010-2020. (LoneStarMike)
Within that metro is San Marcos' Hays County, which ranked as the fastest-growing county in the States (with a population over 100,000) in the same time frame with 53.4% growth, and Williamson County, which came in fourth with 44.1% growth.
And with that growth came change-namely, in the area's racial and ethnic makeup. Austin's Asian population nearly doubled with 96.8% growth and expanded into the third-largest racial demographic in the metro as Austin officially flip-flopped into a minority-majority region. The Non-Hispanic Whites population fell from 54.7% of the population to 49.6% in 2020, representing less than 50% of the population for the first time in census history.
While every major ethnic group increased in population in the last decade, some saw little to no change in percentages—those identifying as Hispanic or Latino increased just 0.5% to make up 31.9% of the population, while the metro's Black population fell by 0.4% to 6.6%. Those that identify as being two or more races or "some other race," exploded by over 200% each. Residents who identify with multiple races now make up 4.1% of the population as part of a nationwide trend dubbed the "diversity explosion."
Austin's Asian and mixed race population exploded as the metro flipped to a minority-majority region. (Austin Chamber)
The Austin metro also saw increasing density as it continues to grow to "boomtown" status. In 2010, 254 block groups in the region showed the population density at 5,000 or more residents per square mile. By 2020, that number had increased to 403—or 2.11% of the area.
And it seems like Austin pushed up as well as out—areas near downtown continued to pile in newcomers, but high density can now be found across the I-35 strip from San Marcos to Round Rock and Leander. Areas to the east and west saw less growth, but density still pushed outward in regions including Bee Cave, Cedar Park and Manor.
The Austin metro saw large population density increases along the I-35 stretch. (Austin Chamber)
Austin was joined by its Texas neighbors on the leaderboard for fastest-growing metros. Houston's Harris County saw the biggest numerical population change in the U.S. with over 600,000 new residents, capping out at No. 10 in percentage change in the metro with 20.3% growth. Dallas was the metro with the 11th-most percentage change and saw 245,000 more residents in Dallas County, while Austin's I-35 neighbors in San Antonio came in 12th with 19.4% growth.
Looking for more data to crunch? More detailed statistics will be released by the Census Bureau in 2022. For now, check out the full report here.
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Austin was one of 14 U.S. metros to grow by more than 100,000 residents from 2010-2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. (Sonia Garcia/Austonia)
Population growth estimates predicted that Austin would swell to nearly 979,000 residents as the housing market soared with demand and reports of a great "California migration" topped the news. While not quite reaching the expected population growth, Austin still experienced 21.7% growth in the last decade, near the 22.1% growth estimate.
Austin failed to surpass San Jose, California to become the nation's 10th largest city and remains in the No. 11 spot. Still, the five-county Austin metro, which includes Travis County as well as nearby Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties, has been the fastest-growing metro in the U.S. for a full 10 years, according to U.S. Census Bureau data revealed in May.
Austin was one of 14 U.S. cities that gained more than 100,000 residents from 2000-2020. Five of those cities, including Austin, Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, are located in Texas.
(U.S. Census Beraua/Twitter)
With 9.8% growth, Houston outpaced its expansion from 2000-2010 and topped Texas cities as the fourth-largest city in the nation. At No. 7, San Antonio grew about half as quickly from 2010-2020 as it did the previous decade but still topped Dallas with over 1.4 million residents, while Dallas experienced 8.9% growth (up from 0.8% from 2000-2010) to round out the top 10 list at No. 9.
(U.S. Census Bureau/Twitter)
Meanwhile, nearby New Braunfels was one of the top ten fastest-growing populations in the nation and was one of four Texas cities to experience a population increase of at least 44%.
Texas' rapid growth has done more than reshape its cities: it's also given the state more political power. The Lone Star State will gain two new seats in the House of Representatives come election season in 2022, giving the state more influence over the nation. The data released Thursday will also be used by lawmakers to redraw congressional districts.
The Bureau has gained recent controversy for its use of "differential privacy," which slightly alters local data in order to protect survey takers' privacy. The new algorithm has been criticized by some for inaccuracies and bugs within the system.
More information on Austin's key demographic changes will be trickled out by the Bureau through Sept. 15, when official population estimates through July 31, 2021 will be finalized.
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The 2020 census was plagued by the pandemic and politics at the state and federal level. But Austin outperformed other cities across Texas in terms of its self-response rate. (Stock photo)
1. There may have been an undercount.
Texas gained two congressional seats as a result of population growth tallied during the 2020 census, more than any other state in the country, but the state was widely projected to gain a third.
Along with the pandemic and a lack of state investment in census outreach, the former Trump administration's attempt to add a citizenship question may have contributed to an undercount. "There was a lot of damage done with just that early confusion," Wheeler said.
Regional data will be released in late September, which will provide more insight into where an undercount may have occurred. But there are already indications that a gap occurred. The census tracts with the lowest self-response rate in the city of Austin are mostly concentrated on the East side.
Additionally, nearly 0.9% of Texas addresses remained unresolved—meaning members of those households did not respond to the questionnaire or census takers who followed up in person, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This is a 71% increase compared to the 2010 census, when 0.52% of Texas addresses remained unresolved.
2. Even a small undercount could have large financial repercussions for Austin.
The city of Austin 2020 population estimate is 995,484. Assuming this is an undercount of 0.9%—which would be at the low-risk end of the spectrum, according to a 2019 report by the Urban Institute—it would leave 9,041 Austin residents uncounted.
For every person uncounted, the community loses $1,500 in annual federal funding, Wheeler said. So this gap would cost the community $135.6 million—in Medicaid funding, Title I school grants and public transit programming—over the next decade.
Although such federal funding has constraints in terms of what it can be used for, such dollars could help offset the costs of programs like:
- The $3.85 billion in local funding required over the next 15 years for Project Connect.
- The $168 million estimated investment required to fund a new city plan to house 3,000 homeless people in three years.
- A $12 million proposal to transform the local early childcare system.
(Capital Metro)3. Austin's racial and ethnic groups are growing at unequal rates.
Between 2010 and 2020, the city of Austin's overall population grew by nearly 26%, according to census data. But this growth varied across racial and ethnic groups.
The city's Black or African American population grew at about the same rate between 2010 and 2019, the latest year for which such data is available. The non-Hispanic White and Hispanic or Latino populations grew at slightly lower rates—22.8% and 19.5%, respectively—over the same period. But the city's Asian population skyrocketed, growing by more than 50% over the last decade.
4. Austin outperformed other large Texas cities in counting its population.
Although the state of Texas saw its self-response rate ranking fall to 39th place in 2020 from 25th in 2010, Austin-Travis County improved its performance over the same period. In fact, it was the only large city-county pair in Texas to beat its 2010 self-response rate, City Demographer Lila Valencia said Tuesday. "I'm really optimistic for Travis County and Austin," she said, attributing the improvement to local investment in the counting process.
(Pexels)
5. It's not too soon to start thinking about the 2030 census.
John Lawler, 2020 census program manager for Austin-Travis County, laid out a number of things the city and county could do in the meantime to improve accuracy, including:
- Staffing up earlier to improve local outreach efforts
- Building on relationships with grassroots community organizations, which proved critical in reaching hard-to-count populations
- Jointly funding an organizing entity that improves civic participation overall, and not just during census years
"Frankly, we should start tomorrow planning for the census in 2030," he said.
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