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Not implementing immediate policy changes could mean a five-week shutdown to keep from overwhelming hospitals, UT modeling shows.
Without significant behavior and policy changes, Austin-area hospitals will reach capacity in mid-July, according to updated projections by the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.
<p>"Right now it seems like we should be doing everything we can—short of a stay-home order—to stop transmission," <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-covid-record-high" target="_blank">Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers</a> told Austin City Council members on Monday. "We're at that point." </p><p><strong>An evolving guide </strong></p><p>Austin Public Health issued a color-coded, five-stage guide to policy recommendations <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-color-coded-risk-chart" target="_blank">in mid-May</a>. The thresholds between stages are based on the rolling average of new daily hospital admissions for COVID patients. The recommendations ranged from limiting social gatherings to returning to "Stay Home-Work Safe" conditions.</p><p><br/></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6db279717614617472a73fa64f131bfe" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="5d3d5" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyNjMwOS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MDYxMjEzNn0.wrvCTTrbz7FkpJ7aqxp1V0AXHfoGgUWZYE4XSBd1pfQ/img.png?width=980"/>
<small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(Austin Public Health)</small></p><p><br/></p><p>This week, APH updated its thresholds to account for adjusted hospital capacity and average hospital stay, which is currently about nine days. "By changing the threshold triggers, the community is able to remain in Stage 4 for a longer period of time before crossing into Stage 5," APH said in a statement. </p><p>The new stage thresholds are as follows: </p><p><br/></p>
<p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="cefedb81b6ebcd24a13b64614ffe4365" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="d244d" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyNjMzNC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNjg4NzE3Nn0.M9wXoojzMDocZ9oktVT55Z2R_GCuGRKo_jg_mF33T9Y/img.png?width=980"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption..." spellcheck="false">The updated guidelines increase the threshold for Stage 2 from a rolling average of 5 new daily COVID-related hospital admissions to 10, Stage 3 from 19 to 39 and Stage 4 from 20 to 40.</small></p><div class="u_fNK" data-grammarly-part="highlights" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; top: 361.078px; left: 0px; width: 461.719px; height: 63.9844px; position: relative; pointer-events: none; overflow: hidden; border: 0px; border-radius: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><div style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="height: 807px; width: 1681px;"><div></div><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="u_fNK" data-grammarly-part="button" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; top: 361.078px; left: 0px; width: 461.719px; height: 63.9844px; position: relative; pointer-events: none; overflow: hidden; border: 0px; border-radius: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><div style="position: absolute; transform: translate(-100%, -100%); top: 58.9844px; left: 457.719px; width: auto; height: auto; pointer-events: all;"><div style="flex-direction: row; display: flex; pointer-events: auto;"><div style="position: relative;"></div><div data-grammarly-part="gbutton"></div></div></div></div></div>
<p><br/></p><div class="u_fNK" data-grammarly-part="highlights" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; top: 228.211px; left: 0px; width: 461.719px; height: 63.9844px; position: relative; pointer-events: none; overflow: hidden; border: 0px; border-radius: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><div style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="height: 808px; width: 1825px;"><div></div><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="u_fNK" data-grammarly-part="button" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; top: 228.211px; left: 0px; width: 461.719px; height: 63.9844px; position: relative; pointer-events: none; overflow: hidden; border: 0px; border-radius: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><div style="position: absolute; transform: translate(-100%, -100%); top: 58.9844px; left: 457.719px; width: auto; height: auto; pointer-events: all;"><div style="flex-direction: row; display: flex; pointer-events: auto;"><div style="position: relative;"></div><div data-grammarly-part="gbutton"><div class="_5WizN _1QzSN"><div class="_3YmQx"><div class="_3QdKe" title="Protected by Grammarly"> </div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="u_fNK" data-grammarly-part="highlights" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; top: 228.211px; left: 0px; width: 461.719px; height: 63.9844px; position: relative; pointer-events: none; overflow: hidden; border: 0px; border-radius: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><div style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="height: 768px; width: 1778px;"><div><div class="_3F-Wk _3mEyK" data-grammarly-part="highlightUnderline" style="top: 40.9922px; left: 99px; width: 24px; height: 16.5px;"></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="u_fNK" data-grammarly-part="button" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; top: 228.211px; left: 0px; width: 461.719px; height: 63.9844px; position: relative; pointer-events: none; overflow: hidden; border: 0px; border-radius: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><div style="position: absolute; transform: translate(-100%, -100%); top: 58.9844px; left: 457.719px; width: auto; height: auto; pointer-events: all;"><div style="flex-direction: row; display: flex; pointer-events: auto;"><div style="position: relative;"><div class="_2okjE _1-uTj" data-grammarly-part="emogenieEmojiBtn">"</div></div><div data-grammarly-part="gbutton"><div class="_5WizN _1y8ub _34Jb6 _1QzSN"><div class="_3YmQx"><div class="_3QdKe" title="Found 1 error in text">1</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><strong>New modeling</strong> </p><p>While local officials are unable to implement policies that interfere with state orders, Dr. Meyers presented a series of scenarios that project how different policy interventions might play out. </p><p>"It's very hard to project what COVID is going to do beyond a couple weeks because we cannot predict behavior, and we cannot predict policy," she said. </p><p>The scenarios project with 95% certainty that area hospitals will not exceed capacity—a total of 1,500 COVID-19 patients—if certain measures are taken. While the interventions vary, each scenario is expected to result in 2,100 total deaths between now and the end of 2021. The difference between them is the duration, timing and extent of the shutdown.</p><p><strong>1. In the first scenario, Austin officials would implement the policy changes recommended at Stage 4 of APH's risk-based guide, which Dr. Meyers helped develop.</strong></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image image-crop-2x1">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d72335e44d5d867177bd4ee816a43d4c" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="17983" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyNDk5MS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxOTg1MTE4OH0.nw7Y6HzPxrdyYOoB9u1W8EWMWyYzxvrp7wvXaVGM7xI/img.png?width=1200&coordinates=88%2C53%2C58%2C68&height=600"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">Dr. Meyers presented this scenario, which presumes partial measures are taken now to contain the current surge.</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin) </small></p><p><br/></p><p>If people comply—wearing masks, limiting social gatherings and minimizing unnecessary trips outside of their homes—the projections suggest that hospitals will not exceed capacity, Stage 5 will never be reached and by December the curve will begin to flatten.</p><p>If such precautions are not taken and adhered to, Austin will escalate to Stage 5, at which point partial measures will not be enough and a second stay-home order is recommended.</p><p><strong>2. In this second scenario, Austin would likely see a series of stay-home orders issued between now and early next year to avoid exceeding hospital capacity.</strong></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image image-crop-2x1">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9cf3678b4ed87de407fd9ca2c802064f" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="281a5" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyNDk5Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTU5NTgwMDM4OH0.qyB7CK_AKk9221kqnXmUV0hnN74bQ65TWEg4jfz8eNA/img.png?width=1200&coordinates=7%2C87%2C31%2C84&height=600"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">In the second scenario, the current surge forces a second shutdown order—and then a series of additional shutdowns—to avoid overwhelming local hospital capacity.</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin) </small></p><p><br/></p><p>"That's pretty bleak," Dr. Meyers said. "It's several months of periodic stay home."</p><p><strong>3. In the third scenario, Dr. Meyers and her team modeled what would happen if local officials don't implement policy changes immediately, but in mid-July issue a five-week stay-home order in an attempt to slow transmission of COVID-19.</strong></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image image-crop-2x1">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6b94d0c779ad6a2788ebc90211314ee8" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="5a142" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyNDk5NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MTUzMTA0NH0.IRpkInPs-49I4jJ6ziv5QNKdQnUTSj-8QuVnd0lw2JA/img.png?width=1200&coordinates=69%2C57%2C41%2C56&height=600"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">The final scenarios projects the outcome if a five-week shutdown is implemented now, which would prompt a three-month period in Stage 4. </small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin) </small></p><p><br/></p><p>Following the five-week period, the projection is that Austin would enter Stage 4 for three months, during which time schools would reopen.</p><p>"The only scenario I think that would be really, really impossible to have any schooling would be if we're in [Stage 5]," Dr. Meyers said, adding that at Stage 4 there would still need to be some "pretty extreme" measures in place to ensure transmission isn't escalating. </p>
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State of the pandemic: 636 new COVID-19 cases in Austin, 60 new hospitalizations, no new deaths
29 June
Travis County reported 636 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, the highest single-day total yet.
<p>The 728 new cases reported by Austin Public Health on Saturday was higher, but included two days of tests after the county COVID-19 dashboard was down for maintenance on Friday.</p><p>The county reported no new deaths Sunday.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMzQ2Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwMDk5MDc1Mn0.6SX4wA6DpfwneuieqJOgt35LXrNMI2ylk7CVFy3j4hg/img.png?width=980" id="9d537" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a2b65ff5f5008b131535472e685693e4" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>Sixty new hospital admissions in the region brought the rolling seven-day average to 52, up from just <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-coronavirus-hospitalization" target="_blank">an average of 20 </a>two weeks ago.</p>
<div id="e5d28" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b8a9082a0e1aa175047973666d40494a"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1276621742069465089" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Demand for #COVID19 testing is increasing at APH + @CommUnityCareTX sites every day, and we want all members of our… https://t.co/s9jRWQ08Od</div> — Austin Public Health (@Austin Public Health)<a href="https://twitter.com/AusPublicHealth/statuses/1276621742069465089">1593205316.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The new record numbers came in after Mayor Steve Adler and Austin Public Health <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-testing-symptoms" target="_self">reversed course on testing</a> asymptomatic people, citing a lack of capacity, and asked that people who have insurance contact their doctors instead of going through the free public testing system.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMzQ3NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MDcwMjY3N30.cgWl-qLs0zoCTGOTjt4WYLE9sI7vEypYXQHAWBYln5k/img.png?width=980" id="0453b" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="30c91584f2e5f738509b6d23be11bec9" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>Across Texas, new cases <a href="https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.172007779.1383534379.1593361290-1136708105.1583360112" target="_blank">topped 5,000 once again</a> as the positivity rate—a key metric cited by Gov. Greg Abbott when rolled back the state's reopening—reached a record high of more than 14%. In Houston, ICUs reportedly<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/504957-houston-hospitals-stop-reporting-covid-19-related-data-after-reaching-base" target="_blank"> hit capacity</a>. </p>
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(Charlie L. Harper III)
Three months into the pandemic, the long-anticipated COVID-19 surge has arrived.
Key indicators both in Austin and across Texas—a rising daily average of new hospital admissions, rising case numbers and a growing positive rate in COVID-19 test results—have spurred policy changes at both the local and state levels.
Here are some questions we can answer:
<ul class="ee-ul"></ul>
What steps has the government taken to address this surge?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxOTg1NS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwMTMwOTg4MH0.VQmeQ8xZLHcPyk_HEfFCCCB_6ukmdL7eSD2OYO6c1aY/img.png?width=980" id="53398" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9cc6de63a76a23594650265504ae2dfb" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Hospitalizations statewide over time.
<p class="caption"><em>Statewide hospitalizations have soared. <a href="https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f" target="_blank">(Texas COVID-19 dashboard</a>)</em><br></p><p>A few: </p><ul><li>Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order this morning that re-closes tubing businesses and bars and reduces permitted restaurant capacity from 75% to 50% on Monday in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus.</li><li>Abbott also <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-hospitals/austins-hospital-capacity" target="_self"><u>re-suspended elective surgeries and procedures</u></a> in Bexar, Dallas, Harris and Travis counties <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-hospitals/austins-hospital-capacity" target="_self"><u>yesterday</u></a> to ensure hospital beds are available for COVID-19 and emergency patients.</li><li>Locally, Austin Mayor Steve Adler and Travis County Judge Sam Biscoe issued orders requiring businesses to mandate masks among their employees and customers, after Abbott signaled that such a mandate would be legally permissible under his reopening plan. They took effect <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-masks-requirement" target="_self"><u>on Monday</u></a> and expire Aug. 15.</li><li>Biscoe issued <a href="https://austonia.com/travis-county-order" target="_self"><u>a second order</u></a> yesterday that prohibits outdoor gatherings in excess of 100 people through July 10, after the governor granted local officials the right to do so. Violators may be fined up to $1,000.</li></ul><p>In a poll, <a href="https://austonia.com/poll-results-majority-vote-texas-to-shutdown-again" target="_self"><u>nearly 60% of Austonia readers</u></a> said the city and state should shut down again, given the surge. </p>How many beds are available at area hospitals?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxOTg2My9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNDY1MDc3NH0.8AoHvtzIpJkmhdAL2scabdM504WPGIF6Omp7C-5RaB0/img.png?width=980" id="5d7d8" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="79f0b6f5941be44346456b9f4857ded9" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Hospital capacities by region in Texas with the top of the chart, 1, representing full capacity. Each region represents a separate Trauma Service Area, which are used to analyze how different parts of the state are affected by the spread of the coronavirus and other hospitalizations. (UT Health)
<p class="caption"><em>Hospital capacities by region in Texas with the top of the chart, 1, representing full capacity. Each region represents a separate Trauma Service Area, which are used to analyze how different parts of the state are affected by the spread of the coronavirus and other hospitalizations. (UT Health)</em></p><p>Dr. Mark Escott said he is not worried about available hospital capacity this week or next during <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-hospitals/the-surge-plan" target="_self"><u>a virtual press conference on Wednesday</u></a>, but he is concerned about what happens after that.</p><p>Projections by the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin show that Travis County's caseload could double by mid-July, overwhelming area hospitals.</p><p>Currently, 227 people are hospitalized with COVID-19 in Travis County, of whom 88 are in the ICU and 34 are on ventilators. This is a fraction of the available capacity, but non-COVID patients continue to require care.</p><p>Austin's three major hospital systems—Ascension Seton, Baylor Scott & White Health and St. David's HealthCare—reported that they have 2,470 staffed beds between them, 71% of which were occupied on Wednesday. </p><p>University of Texas Health epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-pause/additional-measures" target="_self"><u>told Austonia</u></a> that when hospital occupancy cracks 70% public health officials begin to worry. When it reaches 80%, surge centers come into play. </p><p>The systems can increase their capacity to 3,250 beds by adding beds to single-occupancy rooms and drawing in nursing staff from other cities, among other interventions.</p>What if hospitals fill up?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxOTg1Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNDQ3NzYwN30.uoS91mh3VJTATjAuhFHSPzc_GuVGqI7yVPXhTB6Fu8o/img.png?width=980" id="d8d57" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="439c31d7a4585caccc75c717dad7b552" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Austin metro seven-day moving average hospitalizations.
<p><em>Austin metro seven-day moving average hospitalizations. (<a href="https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb" target="_blank">Key indicators dashboard</a>)</em></p><p>The city released <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/what-austin-needs-to-know-about-hospitals-ventilators-and-the-citys-new-surge-plan-2645676614" target="_self"><u>a three-stage surge plan</u></a> in early April. Once hospitals maximize their available bed space, the second stage is to expand care to "Type 2" facilities, such as outpatient surgical centers and former hospital buildings. The city has identified six such buildings that can serve 50-100 people but has not named them.</p><p>In the last stage, the city will open "Type 1" venues—field hospitals that could serve low-acuity patients, such as those who need an IV or supplemental oxygen. The city has declined to identify these venues, but in the Wednesday press conference, one local physician indicated the Austin Convention Center is being prepared.</p>Who is getting COVID and who is dying of it?
<div id="b7efc" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="642513e0cba2a0a724bf7798a434ff39"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1275479340915068928" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Over 70% of our new cases since June 8th have been in the 20-39 age group. The same age group is experiencing incre… https://t.co/BKxt08YQ8E</div> — Dr. Mark E. Escott (@Dr. Mark E. Escott)<a href="https://twitter.com/MeaEscott/statuses/1275479340915068928">1592932946.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The vast majority—70% of new cases reported June 8-23—were in the 20-39 age group, according to Austin Public Health data.</p><p>This increase in infections among young people may be contributing to <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/coronavirus-deaths-austin" target="_self"><u>a lower mortality rate</u></a>—for the time being—given their better chances at recovery. </p><p>However, despite <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-coronavirus-hospitals/higher-exposure-for-health-care-workers" target="_self"><u>improvements in treatment</u></a> and increased testing, the disease remains deadly for some—especially for older patients and nursing home residents. </p><p>Patients over 60 account for 86% of Travis County's COVID-19 deaths, per APH data. </p>What can I do to stay safe?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxOTkzMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNzMwMzMxN30.14c2m1alEi5mM2Ab8O-_XRQLDV2iVdL6lWjBgPmea08/img.jpg?width=980" id="5eaaf" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7c88072a21b6421c0bc2184c9c7b5292" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="masks mask" />(Charlie L. Harper III)
<p class="caption"><em>(Charlie L. Harper III/Austonia)</em></p><p>Abbott and local officials are united in their advice: stay home, wear a mask when you're out, socially distance and wash your hands. </p><p>"It's crunch time for now, over the next week to 10 days," Adler said during a video update posted to his Facebook page <a href="https://www.facebook.com/austinmayoradler/videos/311869439838613/" target="_blank"><u>on Thursday evening</u></a>. "We really need to see what we can do to turn this thing around."</p>What is behind this surge?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxOTg1My9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNzM0NzI4OH0.QTZ_Ckri4ngxoR7n4pBF3ovLTd8J07fiodHBJaXnSi4/img.png?width=980" id="878fb" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9dc28ba34054ba63e56a2ec74ebb3a67" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />(Texas COVID-19 dashboard)<p><em>The state positivity rate has risen above 10%. (<a href="https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f" target="_blank">Texas COVID-19 dashboard</a>)</em></p><p>Local health officials attribute the spike to a combination of factors: the state's reopening, which began on May 1 and has scaled up since then; Memorial Day festivities and other mass events; rising case numbers <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/coronavirus-deaths-austin" target="_self"><u>among young people</u></a>, who may be more likely to socialize; and loosening adherence to masking, social distancing and other precautions.</p><p>Specifically, data shows cases began to rise when the state moved into the second phase of its reopening plan, which allowed restaurants to increase capacity to 50% and bars and salons to open, <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-pause/a-predictable-curve" target="_self"><u>Jetelina told Austonia</u></a>.</p><p>During a virtual press conference on Wednesday, Dr. Escott and local physicians implored Austin residents to stay home when possible and to stay vigilant when not.</p><p>"If the situation doesn't improve in the next week to two weeks—I'm going to have to make a recommendation to the mayor and the [county] judge that we shut down," Dr. Escott said. "And I don't want to do that."</p>How does this compare to what is happening nationally?
<p>This trend is not limited to Austin. Twenty-six states have seen their caseloads increase <a href="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surge-map-7714f8d1-5ba1-46f8-9bf3-5d59938f2c95.html" target="_blank"><u>over the past week</u></a>, with the most substantial changes in Arizona, Michigan, Texas and Florida.</p> <p>New York, New Jersey and Connecticut <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/travel-restrictions" target="_self"><u>announced Wednesday</u></a> that they would require travelers from Texas to quarantine for 14 days—a reversal of roles from earlier in the pandemic.</p>Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/" target="_blank"><u>said Thursday</u></a> that the number of people who have been infected with COVID-19 in the U.S. is likely 10 times the number of confirmed cases, which is hovering around 2.4 million.Are schools still opening in August?
<p>So far, yes.</p><p>Abbott announced <a href="https://austonia.com/education/texas-schools/particle-1" target="_self"><u>last week</u></a> that students will return to Texas public schools for the new school year. Austin ISD returns to the classroom on Aug. 18 and is planning on a hybrid model that combines in-person instruction with distance learning for those families who choose it.</p><p>Education Commissioner Mike Morath issued a statement saying it was safe for students to return, that schools would not be required to mandate face masks or screenings and that the TEA would provide more detailed guidance this week, <a href="https://austonia.com/education/tea-guidelines" target="_self"><u>which has yet to arrive</u></a>. </p>What does this mean for area businesses?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzE3MDY0OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNTkyNTU3MH0.Lo_ronPVP18yFjIjCTDDNjf8fBmTWwDJ8bCGSuCTGy4/img.jpg?width=980" id="1128e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="89a9fcdba08e3b6165a30901083e58c5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="Domain" />(Karen Brooks Harper/Austonia)<p class="caption"><em>(Karen Brooks Harper/Austonia)</em></p><p>Businesses are already struggling to make money while observing capacity limits and dealing with the economic fallout of the first shutdown.</p><p>Last week Adler urged restaurants to reduce their capacity in light of the mounting surge, prior to the governor's mandate that they do so. </p><p>Local attorney Kareem Hajjar, who represents hundreds of restaurants in Austin and across Texas, <a href="https://austonia.com/city/austin-restaurants-health" target="_self"><u>told Austonia</u></a> that heeding the mayor's advice would be devastating.</p><p>"At this point, I don't have a single client that is going to close again or lower their capacity," he said. "It would wipe them out." </p>From Your Site Articles
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(Never Settle Media/Shutterstock)
Gov. Greg Abbott's announcement that he would pause the reopening process for Texas at its current Phase 3 may not be enough to slow the spread of the coronavirus, according to University of Texas Health epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina.
"You're going to have to go back" to Phase 1, Jetelina said, if the state hopes to get a hold of the rapidly spreading virus.
The source of the surge
<p>In barely a week, Gov. Greg Abbott went from saying Texas had <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-face-masks" target="_self">"abundant" hospital capacity </a>for additional COVID-19 patients to <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/texas-hospitals" target="_self">"pausing" Texas' reopening and suspending elective surgeries.</a></p><p>The coinciding of Memorial Day and the Black Lives Matter protests with the beginning of Phases 1 and 2 of reopening, respectively, makes it hard to pinpoint the true origin of the recent surge in cases. But cases started growing, based on data Jetelina studied, when the state moved to Phase 2 of reopening and allowed restaurants to open at 50% capacity, bars to reopen at 25% capacity and salons start doing business again.</p><p>"I really think we need to go back on our reopening phases, which is unfortunate, but this growth started way before Phase 3 reopening," she said.</p>A predictable curve
<p>The effects of reducing social distancing on the spread of the virus have been predicted as far back as mid-May, Austin Public Health told Austonia Thursday. Before the state began reopening, Austin stood at a social distancing rate of 95%, but experts at UT predicted that if that reduced to 50%, the city would see the exponential rise in cases happening in June.</p><p>"You can see that so far [the model] has been really, unfortunately, quite accurate," Austin-Travis County Interim Public Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told the Travis County Commissioners Court earlier this week. "We also have the potential that it could increase faster with projections—now that we have the potential, if we don't change substantially by the middle of July, [we could exceed] our threshold of capacity for our health care system."</p>Additional measures
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxODg3Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NTM3NDE4N30.mCuWb8sRaSZL6cS-RIAIPyzrMN2NyYXHbICzwS2Q7AA/img.png?width=980" id="172bd" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7d230b583f3af9c17f5f144876bfaaf4" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Hospital capacities by region in Texas with the top of the chart, 1, representing full capacity. Each region represents a separate Trauma Service Area, which are used to analyze how different parts of the state are affected by the spread of the coronavirus and other hospitalizations. (Katelyn Jetelina)
<p class="caption"><em>Hospital capacities by region in Texas with the top of the chart, 1, representing full capacity. Each region represents a separate Trauma Service Area, which are used to analyze how different parts of the state are affected by the spread of the coronavirus and other hospitalizations. (UT Health)</em></p><p>Jetelina said suspending elective surgeries, which Abbott did for four large Texas counties—including Travis—on Thursday, will be a huge help to hospitals that have seen beds filled up in recent weeks. </p><p>When hospital capacity cracks 70%, that's when public health officials start to worry, Jetelina said. When it cracks 80%, that's when hospitals begin to need "surge centers." Austin's three main hospital systems <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-covid-lockdown" target="_self">said Wednesday </a>that together the three networks are at 71% total capacity and 70% ICU capacity.</p><p>But Abbott's decision to pause the state's reopening will not do much to slow the spread of coronavirus, Jetelina said, especially since the governor has yet to release an official Phase 4 plan.</p><p>If Texas wants to truly "flatten the curve" again, Jetelina said, Texas leaders must reinstate protocols that require social distancing, like lowering restaurant capacity to 25% and closing bars and beauty salons.</p><p>"Really anywhere that people are coming together and conversing, especially if face masks are not required or mandated, you're just going to get human-to-human spread so much easier than if these places weren't open," she said, adding later, "if that means bars need to be closed or at least [reduce] capacity, then so be it. It's just a matter of getting as far away from each other as possible."</p>From Your Site Articles
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Texas faces ‘massive outbreak’ of COVID-19, governor says: ‘We are looking at greater restrictions’
25 June
(Office of the Governor)
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said that the state is facing a "massive outbreak" of COVID-19 that may mean additional limits to slow the spread of the virus.
<p>"There is a massive outbreak of COVID-19 across the state of Texas,' Abbott said in <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-coronavirus-governor-greg-abbott-massive-outbreak-reopening/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvitals&stream=top" target="_blank">an interview with KFDA-TV in Amarillo</a> on Wednesday. "We are looking at greater restrictions."</p><p>The state of Texas once again reported <a href="https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-abbott-texas-facing-massive-outbreak-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-soar/285-8671a837-d723-4e06-a438-8bbc19e1c86b" target="_blank">a record number of positive cases</a>, but another key metric, the positivity rate, also hit a level that the governor previously said would <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/24/texas-coronavirus-infection-rate/" target="_blank">serve as a "warning flag,"</a> the Texas Tribune reports.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQxNjAyNy9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NjMzMTYwNH0.L2d0Cf33d8TQN0N01SUIjOPQdhKSFHJYtCm0qSmeJPI/img.png?width=980" id="b7e5b" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6109c9803d2659b9226d93f9fbef2137" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p><em>(<a href="https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f" target="_blank">Texas COVID-19 dashboard</a>)</em></p>
<p class="">The seven-day average positivity rate passed 10% on Wednesday, a level not seen since mid-April. Abbott said during a <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/24/texas-coronavirus-infection-rate/" target="_blank">briefing in May</a> that he would consider a positivity rate higher than 10% to be a red flag.</p><p>Earlier this week, Abbott said that while COVID-19 is <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/hospitalizations-texas" target="_blank">spreading at an "unacceptable rate" </a>in Texas, he would consider starting to shut down the state again a last option.</p>From Your Site Articles
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(City of Austin)
Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said he will recommend a second shutdown if the current surge of COVID-19 cases in Travis County is not contained.
<p>"If the situation doesn't improve in the next week to two weeks—I'm going to have to make a recommendation to the mayor and the [county] judge that we shut down," he said at a virtual press conference earlier today. "And I don't want to do that."</p><p>Though Escott can make the recommendation, local jurisdictions have little authority to actually implement a shutdown. </p><p><br/></p>
<div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="963ecb5c59842808ac0e8da2587b57d5" id="15d16"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-partner="rebelmouse" data-twitter-tweet-id="1275903063556001792"><div style="margin:1em 0">If we continue on our current trajectory, my fear is that we may face a decision to shut down again in the next 2-4… https://t.co/HjiFWRW7Pw</div> — Mayor Adler | 😷wear a mask. (@Mayor Adler | 😷wear a mask.)<a href="https://twitter.com/MayorAdler/statuses/1275903063556001792">1593033970.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p><br/></p><p>Dr. Escott was joined by local health care professionals at the event, who echoed his pleas to Austin residents that they stay home, when possible, in addition to wearing masks and socially distancing when they are out.</p><p>"The lid's off," he said. "We've got to put it back on." </p><p>Modeling from researchers at the University of Texas at Austin shows Travis County's caseload could double—jumping to 13,000 from the current estimate of 6,600—in the next 18 days. </p><p>At that rate, the five-county region could see its hospital capacity overwhelmed, Dr. Escott said.</p><p>Dr. John Abikhaled, president of the Travis County Medical Society, said Austin residents have risen to this challenge before. </p><p>"During the lockdown, we did something amazing. We proved that we can control the virus and flatten the curve," he said. "But then we got tired. We got a little stir crazy. And we lowered our guard."</p><p>New local orders took effect yesterday, requiring businesses to mandate masking among employees and customers after a protracted back-and-forth with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.</p><p>While Abbott encouraged Texans to wear masks and stay home in a statement issued yesterday, he has also said that he does not plan to pull back on the state's reopening for the time being.</p><p>Dr. Christopher Ziebell, chief of emergency medicine at Dell Seton Medical Center, asked residents to stay home as much as possible and wear a mask in public, even if it feels like an infringement on personal liberty. </p><p>"While you are free to do the wrong thing, you are also free to do the right thing," he said. </p><p>St. David's Emergency Care Specialist Dr. Ann Buchanan said area hospitals have been planning for a surge for months and are prepared to respond to one. But her colleagues added that it is a worst-case scenario. </p><p>"We do not want to provide care for you at the Austin Convention Center," said Dr. Kirsten Nieto, an internal medicine and pediatric hospitalist at Dell Children's and Dell Seton. "We want you to stay home." </p>
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(Tricia Daniel/Shutterstock)
The number of new cases in Texas for Tuesday, 5,489, broke the previous record set over the weekend by more than 1,000 cases, leading Gov. Greg Abbott to renew calls for Texans to stay home and allow local officials to restrict large outdoor gatherings.
<p>"These are just some of the steps Texas will take to contain the rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations," Abbott said in a statement. "As we face this challenge, there is no substitute for personal responsibility. I urge all Texans to do everything in their power to reduce the transmission of the coronavirus by wearing a face mask, washing their hands often, and staying six-feet apart from others."</p><p>The order allows mayors and county judges to ban or restrict public gatherings with more than 100 people. Previously, officials could only restrict gatherings of more than 500. Abbott also directed the Texas Health and Human Services Commission to issue stricter emergency rules for health and safety at child care centers, some of which have become hotspots for the viruses spread in the state.</p><p>Prior to Tuesday's order, Abbott refrained from giving local officials greater authority to restrict the movement and actions of residents, ignoring calls from the leaders of most large cities in the state. </p><p>"We want to make sure everyone reinforces the best safe practices of wearing a mask, hand sanitation, maintaining safe distance, but importantly, because the spread is so rampant right now, there's never a reason for you to have to leave your home unless you need to go out," Abbott said during an interview with KBTX in College Station via satellite. "The safest place for you is at your home." <br/></p><p>Abbott hinted at the coming expansion of local authority ahead of the July 4 weekend. He also warned Monday that he might have to reissue restrictions to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus if case counts keep rising. But he did not say what that would entail, nor did he say what the restrictions would look like for the upcoming holiday.</p><p>"We did see an increase after Memorial Day," Abbott said. "We saw an increase in the early part of June. We need to make sure that we do have the flexibility to reduce crowds in ways that will reduce the spread of COVID-19."</p><p>In the meantime, Abbott mentioned an increasing crackdown on bars violating social distancing and other restrictions intended to fight the viruses spread. </p><p>"There are measures that are being taken to make sure that we are immediately responding to this, as well as additional announcements that may be coming later today and later tomorrow, as well as during the course of the week," he told KBTX.</p><p>Abbott's comments come as a new set of mask-requirement orders are coming down from the city of Austin and Travis County. The new orders mandate face coverings at businesses for all employees and visitors—the city's order goes a step further in additionally requiring businesses that do not interact with the public to follow the guidelines, too. </p>
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Travis County reported a record number of COVID-19 cases again on Sunday: 506. The previous record was set the day before, when the county said it had 418 new cases.
<p>Local health officials have said that though there has been an increase in the number of tests administered in recent weeks, that does <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-hospitalizations/particle-2" target="_blank">not entirely account for the spike</a>. Hospitalizations, for example, have also risen, with the seven-day rolling average <a href="https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb" target="_blank">more than doubling over the last two weeks</a>.</p><p>Statewide numbers have also alarmed health officials, with <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/hospitalizations-texas" target="_blank">10 consecutive days </a>of record hospitalizations.</p>
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