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Third time’s a charm: Why Austinites passed Prop A when other light rail proposals have failed
17 November
(Emma Freer/Austonia)
After a contentious campaign period, and two failed transit initiatives in 2014 and 2000, Austinites voted to approve Proposition A, which permanently raises the city's property tax rate to help pay for Project Connect, a $7.1 billion plan to overhaul the local transit system.
Unlike other races this election cycle, the results weren't close. Prop A passed by a nearly 19% margin, which local political analysts and transit advocates attributed to record-breaking turnout, a younger electorate and a new approach to transit planning.
<p><strong>A once-in-a-lifetime election</strong></p><p>Travis County set multiple new records this election. More residents voted early this year than in the entire 2016 race. Ninety-seven percent of eligible voters registered, and more than 71% actually turned out.</p><p>When turnout is low, it tends to favor the most reliable voters: older, wealthier and disproportionately white. High turnout, on the other hand, brings a more representative electorate to the polls.</p>
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<a href="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDUxNzI0Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NjY4OTkyMn0.wdz5Wn431g4_9tkUBgCkVL1830dMA1cYCjIHx658YtM/img.jpg?width=980" target="_blank"><img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="811cf905ee3f7e77e1ac4e07a160dca0" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="d7fdb" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDUxNzI0Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NjY4OTkyMn0.wdz5Wn431g4_9tkUBgCkVL1830dMA1cYCjIHx658YtM/img.jpg?width=980"/></a>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption..." spellcheck="false">Travis County, Texas surpass 2016 turnout during early voting—with Election Day sure to widen margin.</small>
<small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="add photo credit...">(Bob Daemmrich)</small>
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<p>Mark Littlefield, a local political consultant, said this was critical to Prop A's success.<br/></p><p>"The difference this time around … was that this was going to be the largest electorate that we've ever had in Travis County, just because of the presidential election," he explained.</p><p>Another important development in Prop A's favor was that Austin's demographics have shifted since 2014, when less than a quarter of early voters were under the age of 40, according to data collected and analyzed by Littlefield. This election, nearly half were. </p><p>"The professionals brought to our attention the influx of new, young voters that have come to Austin in the last couple of years," Capital Metro Chairperson Wade Cooper said. "We were cognizant of the fact that they tended to be pro-transit."</p><p>The reasons for this are less partisan than generational, Littlefield said.</p><p>Younger Austinites are more likely to cite climate change and equity as concerns, both of which Prop A supporters addressed in their campaign. This demographic is also more likely to consider transit as a bonus.</p><p>"We see a lot of young professionals moving into the city every day, even during the pandemic, and they're coming from bigger cities that already have this infrastructure set up," said Alyssia Palacios-Wood, president and CEO of the Austin Young Chamber. "(They) already love transit."</p><p>This is anathema to some older generations, Littlefield said, who may find it hard to believe someone would eschew a car voluntarily.</p><p>This was part of the oppositions' argument, from groups such as the political action committee Our Mobility Our Future and the nonprofit Voices of Austin. But it carried little water with the younger voters, which Prop A proponents were banking on.</p><p>"They were campaigning to the choir," Littlefield said.</p><p><strong>Lessons learned</strong> </p><p>In addition to a changing electorate, Prop A also benefited from Project Connect's broader scope and grander ambition.</p><p>Conventional wisdom used to be that a transit referendum would be more likely to pass if it appealed to transit skeptics, said Christof Spieler, a senior lecturer at the Rice University School of Architecture. </p><p>This was often achieved by limiting the amount of funding and bundling in spending for different kinds of infrastructure.</p><p>In 2014, for example, Austin voted on a $1 billion transit proposal, which included one light rail as well as roadway improvements. But it failed <a href="https://www.kut.org/post/austins-rail-and-roads-bond-defeated" target="_blank">by a margin of 14%</a>.</p><p>This time around, Capital Metro and city officials learned from past failures. Project Connect included more than seven times the investment and focused exclusively on transit, with two light rail lines, expanded bus service and other components. </p><p>"I think we learned from 2014 that the public didn't want just a project," Cooper said. "They wanted a plan that they could see would really move the needle in Austin."</p><p>Another key change, Spieler said, is the attention paid to advocacy groups and grassroots organizing.</p><p>Capital Metro reports that around 60,000 Austinites provided input on Project Connect, and advocates—some of whom opposed the last ballot measure because they felt it did too little—were more directly involved.</p><p>"Those advocacy groups were a major voice in the creation of the plan and then rally their supporters to turn out to vote for it," Spieler said.</p>
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<a href="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNzc4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzODc4NzU3MH0.7Gd6yNacEZLyZG0_F-dXylE9Ruf2qpcrcuxh-bogMZk/img.jpg?width=980" target="_blank"><img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="399db329ff5cd510c0d5127cfdf5db38" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="a4509" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNzc4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzODc4NzU3MH0.7Gd6yNacEZLyZG0_F-dXylE9Ruf2qpcrcuxh-bogMZk/img.jpg?width=980"/></a>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption..." spellcheck="false">Austin leaders urged residents to support Proposition A in the final days of voting.</small>
<small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">
(Emma Freer/Austonia)
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<p>Transit for Austin, a pro-Prop A PAC, also convened a large coalition of supporters, with environmental groups, social justice advocates, elected officials and trade organizations among its ranks.<br/></p><p>"The accessibility of the (soccer) stadium is our talking point," said Tony Cardone, director of social for Austin Anthem, the official supporters group for Austin FC.</p><p>Kathy Sokolic, the chairperson and co-founder of Central Texas Families for Safe Streets, was swayed by transit's safety benefits.</p><p>"It's kind of a no-brainer for our folks," she said. </p><p>The Mueller Neighborhood Association also endorsed Prop A. Many of its residents—who have opted to live in a high-density, transit-oriented, economically diverse development—put Prop A signs in their yards and discussed the measure on their private Facebook group.</p><p>Andrew Clements, the association's chairperson and a longtime transit advocate, said the downtown tunnel proposed under Project Connect was particularly compelling because it will allow light rail trains to avoid traffic and expand capacity. Where maybe a few train cars could fit on a city block before blocking intersections, many more than that can travel underground.</p><p>"We were kind of surprised by the audacity of even proposing the tunnel," he said.</p>
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(Capital Metro/Twitter)
Austin is making public transit electric by introducing the first interoperable charging buses in the country. In partnership with Siemens Mobility and Proterra Inc., Capital Metro now has 12 zero-emission electric buses on the roads.
The initiative is part of Project Connect, an overhaul of the city's transit system, and a bigger plan to purchase only zero-emission electric buses by 2022. The City of Austin also plans to integrate <a href="https://www.statesman.com/news/20201029/austin-spends-883k-on-electric-bikes-as-customers-opt-for-easier-ride?utm_source=SND&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=statesman" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">125 new electric bikes</a> in addition to the 200 already on the streets since February<div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="10b1f4c4187884a6cb2c375c153613fb" id="904c4"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-partner="rebelmouse" data-twitter-tweet-id="1321515894305161221"><div style="margin:1em 0">We know what you're thinking: "Wait-that's a @newflyer bus on a @SiemensMobility @Proterra_Inc charger. HOW!?"
Aft… https://t.co/1FdjcIb5ak</div> — Capital Metro (@Capital Metro)<a href="https://twitter.com/CapMetroATX/statuses/1321515894305161221">1603908916.0</a></blockquote></div><p>Electric buses provide for a quieter and greener ride, keeping the air clean with solar and wind energy. The buses come complete with USB charging ports throughout and have an open floor plan to accommodate more riders.<br/></p><p>Capital Metro is currently working on creating a new bus yard to support charging future electric-only buses. When the warehouse is complete, it will house 214 buses and be able to charge 187 buses at any time.</p><p>Electric buses already in service can be tracked <a href="https://www.capmetro.org/electric-bus-tracker" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><strong>More on Capital Metro:</strong></p>
<h2><a href="https://austonia.com/capital-metro-free-rides" target="_self">Capital Metro offers free bike, bus rides during election</a></h2>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDY0MTcwMi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNzIyMzEzNn0.Uq2wbJ1-YMX7UCHyV84Nh2lrHJvhpK7zE1OUxurEuyg/img.png?width=980" id="f44a4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="508df38553701fd66d338733f2c559e0" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
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(Emma Freer/Austonia)
Past transit invesment, including the building of I-35, displaced Austinites.
On Nov. 3, Austin residents will vote on Proposition A. If approved, it will increase the city's property tax rate by around 20% to help pay for Project Connect, a $7.1 billion overhaul of the local transit system.
<p>Proponents say the plan will help make Austin <a href="https://austonia.com/project-connect-pandemic" target="_self">a more equitable city</a> by ensuring residents have access to an affordable and comprehensive transit system. </p><p>But past transit initiatives suggest that the project could deepen the fault lines it hopes to address, which is why Austin City Council has allocated $300 million for anti-displacement initiatives under the Project Connect proposal.</p><p><strong>The broken spoke </strong></p><p><strong></strong>District 1 Council Member Natasha Harper-Madison told Austonia that the pandemic has magnified infrastructural failures and exposed disparities in health care, education and transit access.</p><p>"Multiple generations of disinvestment have to be reconciled," she said. </p><p>Although Project Connect provides a chance for the city to catch up, it could also lead to some unintended consequences. </p><p>In other U.S. cities, transit investment has accelerated gentrification and displacement. </p><p>Researchers at the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University found that the "predominant pattern" of neighborhood change following transit investment was "one in which housing becomes more expensive, neighborhood residents become wealthier and vehicle ownership becomes more common," according to <a href="https://www.reimaginerpe.org/files/TRN_Equity_final%282%29.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a 2010 report</a>. </p><p>Some Austinites have seen this happen in their own backyards. </p><p>The construction of MoPac in 1971 led to the destruction of nearly one-third of the homes in Clarksville, <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/baylor-mary-frances-freeman" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">one of the earliest freedmen's communities</a> established west of the Mississippi and, during segregation, <a href="http://www.clarksvillecdc.org/clarksville-under-threat" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">one of the few remaining Black neighborhoods</a> west of Interstate-35. </p><p>Similarly, the building of I-35 in the 1960s "both displaced existing Black communities and reinforced the de facto and de jure segregation of Austin" codified in the city's 1928 master plan, <a href="https://austinjustice.org/ajcs-guide-to-project-connect/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">according to the Austin Justice Coalition</a>.</p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><div style="overflow:hidden;padding-bottom:56.25%;position:relative;height:0;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" src="https://texashistory.unt.edu/media/assets/public/js/vendor/universal-viewer/uv.html#?manifest=/ark:/67531/metapth124769/manifest/&c=0&m=0&s=0&cv=0&config=https://texashistory.unt.edu/media/assets/public/js/vendor/universal-viewer/aubrey-config.json&locales=&xywh=" style="left:0;top:0;height:100%;width:100%;position:absolute;"></iframe></div></div><p>As a result, there is concern that, if implemented, Project Connect could worsen Austin's affordability crisis and deepen the inequities it aims to rectify.<br/></p><p>"Once this is approved in November … the speculation of real estate is going to happen instantaneously, almost over night," said Steven Pedigo, director of the LBJ Urban Lab at the University of Texas at Austin. </p><p><strong>The alternate route </strong></p><p>Aware of this likelihood and the precedent of past transit investment, Austin City Council worked to ensure the Project Connect budget includes $300 million in anti-displacement funds to be spent over the next 10 to 13 years on things such as:</p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>The construction or development of new affordable housing,</li><li>Preservation, repair and rehabilitation of existing affordable housing,</li><li>Financial assistance for homeowners,</li><li>Home repair,</li><li>Rental subsidies</li><li>And right to return assistance.</li></ul><p>"If it's after the fact, we've missed the boat," District 5 Council Member and Capital Metro Board Member Ann Kitchen said at an Aug. 7 meeting. </p><p>Dr. Yingling Fan is a professor at the University of Minnesota who has researched the effects of light rail development in Minnesota's Twin Cities. In 2012, she co-authored a report that looked at neighborhood change induced by new transit corridors, including gentrification and displacement.</p><p>"My opinion is we need to be aware of the potential impacts," Fan said, "but there is a lot of opportunity for government agencies to work with neighborhood organizations to ensure affordable housing supply is protected."</p><p>Austin Mayor Steve Adler and others have stressed that no city has done as much as Austin proposes to with Project Connect to offset displacement. </p><p>Harper-Madison pointed to the city of Denver, which established its Transit-Oriented Development Fund in 2010 with an initial investment of $15 million—or 5% of what Austin plans to allocate.</p><p>"We're going to be the gold standard," she told Austonia. </p><p><strong>The next stop </strong><br/></p><p>But some community members have raised concerns that the funding <a href="https://austonia.com/project-connect-budget" target="_self">will not come through</a> or, if it does, not achieve its stated aim. </p><p>David King, speaking as a long-time resident of the Zilker neighborhood, worries that Project Connect is "a perfect storm for displacement" and that $300 million is inadequate to prevent what is coming down the tracks. (He is also a member of the city's zoning and platting commission.) </p><p>"I don't think the city is as committed to preventing displacement as it could be," King told Austonia, adding that he would like to see more concrete parameters for how such funding will be allocated and demands on developers who build near transit stations.</p><p>In response to such concerns, council members established a <a href="https://www.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=346733" target="_blank">"contract with voters</a>" that ensures the city will create neighborhood-level strategies with community members, develop an equity assessment tool and publicly track the progress of its anti-displacement initiatives. </p><p>Yasmine Smith is a co-chair of the local nonprofit People United for Mobility Action, which works to ensure every Austinite has access to safe, affordable and convenient transit options. She has been heartened by the city's commitment to equity in developing Project Connect and believes the contract with voters will ensure the anti-displacement funding is put to best use. </p><p>"I like to analogize it to gumbo," Smith said. "Right now, we're in the roux stage. We've made a good roux, a great base, with the legal binding documents."</p><p>If Proposition A is approved by voters, it will take a long time "to get the tenderness of the meat just right," but Smith said she will be at the stovetop, stirring away.</p><p><strong>More on Project Connect:</strong></p>
<h2><a href="https://austonia.com/project-connect-taxes" target="_self">Austonia answers: How much will Project Connect raise my taxes?</a></h2>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ0MzY5My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNDU0ODc5OH0.Bb3tQZywQmgcH68kY8yu-OAWDLZpYqbNSVRDrqElfZo/img.jpg?width=980" id="f7a4b" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b7d86f77c8e859a3f9378f3d6a9d003e" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />How much will Project connect raise my taxes?(Emma Freer/Austonia)
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Progressives Against Project Connect held rally in front of Capital Metro's East Austin headquarters September 30, 2020.
It's a well-worn cliché in American politics that Progressives want to raise your taxes whereas Conservatives want to cut them. But the reality is more e nuanced. At least in Austin this fall, where some Progressives are taking a stand against a tax increase known as Proposition A.
<p>A self-described group of "Progressives Against Project Connect" held a press conference September 30 to air their grievances about the proposition, which asks voters to approve a property tax rate of $0.5535 per $100 of property valuation before exemptions. That rate is $0.0875 higher per $100 valuation than the voter-approval tax rate, a 20.4 percent increase over the current level.</p><p><a href="https://theaustinbulldog.org/transit-tax-draws-attack-from-the-left/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Read the rest at The Austin Bulldog</a>.</p>
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(Capital Metro)
Rendering, Project Connect station
The Austin City Council on Friday unanimously approved a measure to add to the November ballot the massive $7.1B "Project Connect," a 20-year overhaul of Austin's transit system that would include a new light rail and "rapid bus" lines.
The council plans to add it to the ballot in a formal order next week, members said. Then it's up to voters to decide whether to approve it.
<p>Because of technical difficulties, Friday's virtual meeting, in which the council also created a governing body for implementing the plan should it pass, was not streamed online. But council members shared their news on Twitter in the wake of their vote.</p><p><br/></p><div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c822f3ff32285fa04c656dc173e18661" id="6b910"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-partner="rebelmouse" data-twitter-tweet-id="1291865801176354817"><div style="margin:1em 0">Project Connect is about building back better after COVID, its about transportation that works for everybody, its a… https://t.co/ap6C8V0jNj</div> — Ann Kitchen (@Ann Kitchen)<a href="https://twitter.com/D5Kitchen/statuses/1291865801176354817">1596839783.0</a></blockquote></div><p>Council members chose a scaled-down version of the plan due to economic uncertainty brought about <a href="https://austonia.com/transportation/project-connect-austin-coronavirus" target="_self">by the pandemic</a>. An earlier version, approved by council in June, would have cost $10 billion.<br/></p><p>Capital Metro <a href="https://austonia.com/transportation/project-connect-austin" target="_self">proposed $3 billion in cuts last month</a>, including the elimination of a light-rail line running from Austin Community College Highland to downtown and the shortening of another, which would span North Lamar and South Congress.</p><p>If approved by voters, the $7 billion plan will increase the city property tax rate by 8.5 cents. For the median homeowner, this means their annual property tax bill will be about $276 higher.</p><div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7c6efe35152108c346f393acf8db696e" id="65ae7"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-partner="rebelmouse" data-twitter-tweet-id="1291865503032659968"><div style="margin:1em 0">883 days ago I started at @capmetroatx with the board’s direction to develop a data driven community supported tran… https://t.co/Lp54EWrH1U</div> — Randy Clarke 😷 (@Randy Clarke 😷)<a href="https://twitter.com/CapMetroCEO/statuses/1291865503032659968">1596839712.0</a></blockquote></div><p>In addition to taxpayer dollars, CapMetro will still need to seek an additional $3.15 billion in funding - 45% of the total budget - from the federal government.<br/></p><p>Along with deciding which version they will add to November's ballot next week, council members and the CapMetro board also voted to create a governing body called the Austin Transportation Partnership that will oversee the implementation of the plan. </p><p>The ATP board will include representatives from City Council and the Capital Metro board as well as three community experts.</p><p><em>This story has been updated; Project Connect will be funded through a tax rate election, not a bond. </em><br/></p>
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Austin Mayor Adler talks COVID, inequity, homelessness and policing in 'State of the City' address
05 August
(City of Austin)
Austin Mayor Steve Adler delivered his annual "State of the City" address Wednesday—virtually.
This story has been updated to include quotes from the mayor's speech.
Austin Mayor Steve Adler delivered his annual "State of the City" address Wednesday evening, in which he discussed the coronavirus pandemic, police funding, the local economy, homelessness, transit and equity issues.
<p>Usually delivered to a crowd at City Hall, tonight's address was—as are all things Council these days—virtual.</p><p>"This could have been a speech only about COVID-19," Adler said. Instead, much of his 25-page address focused on the opportunities presented in this moment. </p><p>"Perhaps only at times such as these, where our routines and inertia are so utterly disrupted, can we be freed and forced to dream and act big," he said. "So let's do big things. Let's end homelessness. Let's bring real mobility to Austin. Let's reimagine how we keep one another safe. Let's address race and do something about correcting centuries of injustice because it is the fundamental injustice that fuels so many others." </p><p>Below are some quotes, excerpted from a transcript shared in advance. </p><p><strong>On the coronavirus</strong> </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We all want the local economy—and our lives—back as we knew them. But the governor's decision to reopen before we had sufficient testing and tracing in place and before our numbers were low enough compounded the challenge. … Truth is, the virus was never gone. <a href="https://austonia.com/testing-asymptomatic-austin" target="_blank">It just hides</a>, waiting for us to invite it back into our lives." </p><p><strong>On the economy</strong></p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Unemployment is at unimaginable levels. Businesses have shuttered - some temporarily and some lost forever. Many of our neighbors don't know how they're going to feed their families or whether they'll be evicted from their homes. Tenants struggle with rent; homeowners and landlords struggle with mortgage payments. Our hospitality and creative workers and industries, so great a part of our economy, are reeling. For many, it's already too late." </p><p><strong>On homelessness</strong> </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"To the people <a href="https://austonia.com/austin-texas-homeless-petition" target="_blank">that signed on to the petition</a> because they were desperate for a solution for people experiencing homelessness, I want to say that I share your impatience. Having chosen this more just path, though, and having rejected the false promise of cosmetic fixes, our work is incomplete unless we follow through with the commitment to house the homeless. This will require us to do a better job of inclusively managing shared public spaces." </p><p><strong>On transit</strong> </p><p style="margin-left: 40px;">"Project Connect is <a href="https://austonia.com/transportation/project-connect-austin" target="_blank">a bold transit plan</a> for the just and accessible city we aspire to be. It certainly addresses traffic, but it will do so much more. … Project Connect will connect our entire city, creating new opportunity for Austinites, reducing our dependence on expensive personal vehicles, and save lives." </p><p><strong>On police funding</strong> </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"I want to address police department leadership. … We need not only an openness to consider change but a keen desire to move past the status quo and to look at public safety more broadly than [ever,] mainly focusing on ensuring we're best equipped to deal with unsafe moments when they occur. We need more than just a willingness to accept change <a href="https://austonia.com/austin-city-council-police-policy" target="_blank">if it happens</a>; we need a champion for change at its best."</p><p><span></span>Want to read the whole speech? Here's the transcript. </p><p class="pdf-loader"><a class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="bdab21c224a6f214f9ee5a4066743481" href="https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/6988/SOTC 2020 FINAL.pdf">SOTC 2020 FINAL.pdf</a></p><p>Make it a game! Adler invited residents to use this bingo card to mark off every topic mentioned in the speech. Can you get to bingo? Share it on social media with #ATXSOTC.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6b0e4c3e305d794e5a8d90586202a727" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="99d54" type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUzNzU2OC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1Njg4NTY1NH0.wzAmDm1N9F0NflybdxcR9O5shzZ_8EsH-H8Dhs40ywM/img.png?width=980"/>
<small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">(City of Austin)</small></p>
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Project Connect, thanks to COVID-19, now faces a tougher, murkier political journey through the next several months. (Capital Metro)
Just a few weeks ago, Capital Metro and supporters of its $9.8 billion light rail-plus plan had the wind at their backs.
A proposed November rail referendum sure to be teeming with transit-friendly Democrats eager to show up and have their say in the presidential election. A Central Texas road system snarled through most of the daylight hours, even on Saturdays. A robust local economy, with everyone working and likely in a generous mood toward a huge government public works proposal.
<p>Even Capital Metro itself—for most of 35-year history something of a civic punching bag with unimpressive ridership on its buses and trains—had been on a 17-month streak of increasing boardings on its system. And Capital Metro, with agency CEO Randy Clarke finishing his second year on the job, finally had the sort of charismatic and politically savvy leader it had long lacked.</p><p>Victory in November—a public OK for hiking Austin property taxes to pay for much of the "Project Connect" 20-year installation/expansion of five rail lines and additional "rapid bus" routes—seemed, if not locked down, at least more likely than not.</p><p>Then came COVID-19 and the Great Mitigation.</p><p>Those once-frustrating highways are, for now, open roads. With so many downtown workers toiling away in their dens, Capital Metro has seen its ridership fall by two-thirds. The Austin area, with the economy shutdown worldwide to tame the deadly contagion, will likely see 25 percent unemployment this year. Both the city and Capital Metro budgets will lose tens of millions of dollars in 2020, primarily from less-than-projected sales taxes.</p><p>Even the core model of public transit has taken a public relations hit. The insularity of traveling in your own car suddenly seems so much safer than sharing a closed space on a bus or train with strangers</p><p>Project Connect, thanks to COVID-19, now faces a tougher, murkier political journey through the next several months.</p><p>Is it possible that the tax referendum on the plan might even be put off to another, less dicey year?</p><p>"That's a conversation we need to be having as we move into the summer," said Austin Mayor Steve Adler, who is foursquare behind the plan to build at least 35 miles of light rail lines from North Austin to South Austin, and to Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. "In so many ways, the world seems to be changing every two days now. We don't know what the economic situation will be a few months from now. Or how long the process will be to adapt to the situation. We don't know whether Congress is going to step forward with an infrastructure bill in May.</p><p>"Everyone is wanting to have more information."</p><p>Clarke, while acknowledging the uncertainty of the moment, said the policy bedrock beneath the rippling topsoil remains unchanged. Austin's bustle and growth will return, he said.</p><p>"We might have roads with no cars on them today," Clarke said. "But the traffic will be back. Instead of building 26 more towers downtown, we might build 20. Instead of 130 people a day moving here, maybe we could have 100."</p><p>That younger than ever, overwhelmingly Democratic electorate will still show up at the polls this fall. And Capital Metro, he said, still has a good story to tell voters.</p><p>"We were up (on ridership) 17 months straight," he said. "And if the only thing that stops us is a global pandemic, I feel pretty good about that."</p><p><br/></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img alt="ridership coronavirus" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b3a8c1aa686a99c8a4053670054f7924" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzE0NTU5NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MjY3NDMxM30.T0oSaz1s6FAqT6T4HnvmjPVgqqtH4ltqnbV2q5U2Z6c/img.png?width=980" id="badae" type="lazy-image"/>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">CapMetro ridership going into the pandemic. (Source: Capital Metro)</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit...">Source: Capital Metro</small></p><p><strong><br/></strong></p><p><strong>Opposition remains</strong></p><p>Also unchanged, however, is resistance from a small group of motivated and monied conservatives who have bedeviled Capital Metro since the 1990s and helped defeat two previous light rail plans.</p><p>"People want to get where they want to go, curb to curb," said Travis County Commissioner Gerald Daugherty, a Republican who first came to public notice opposing a Capital Metro sales tax increase in 1995. "And not be enclosed in a capsule with a bunch of coughing people."</p><p>Daugherty said his group will go public shortly with a political action committee, a website and talking points against the Project Connect referendum.</p><p>This latest march toward a rail election—city voters soundly rejected a flawed $1.4 billion plan in 2014 that even some of the noisier rail advocates in town opposed—began about two years ago when Capital Metro and city leaders revivified the Project Connect brand used for that earlier plan. Consultants went to work again designing routes, making cost and ridership estimates, and holding public meetings. Officials say that more than 40,000 people have participated either in person or online.</p><p>For much of 2018 and 2019, Clarke and the agency kept the public in suspense about whether rail might be left out of the final recommendation. Perhaps the "high-capacity" transit lines would use only electric, rubber-tired buses running on dedicated routes carved out of existing streets, in many cases. That bus-only plan would have cost about a third as much, or less than $3 billion, though with a much lower ridership ceiling years in the future.</p><p>But the final plan that emerged late last year included a 20-mile Orange rail line running from North Lamar Boulevard near U.S. 183, through downtown, and then south on South Congress Avenue. The proposed 15-mile Blue rail line would run from the airport along East Riverside Drive, cross under the river just west of I-35, and then run west to meet the Blue line at Lavaca and West Fourth streets.</p><p>Yes, under the river. The headline feature of this new plan (various other rail plans dating back to the 1980s have included versions of the Blue and Orange lines) is a $2 billion tunnel section beneath downtown, including what officials have dubbed the Austin Underground transit mall. The tunnels reportedly were key to getting business community support because it would spare downtown streets the loss of lanes through dozens of blocks.</p><p>The plan also includes another Gold light rail line, a commuter rail line to Manor and improvements to the existing MetroRail Red line.</p><p>The Capital Metro board in early June is likely to vote to approve the plan as the "locally preferred alternative," a necessary step to initiate a several-year process of trying to land federal grants for the project. The Federal Transit Administration, if Austin prevails in a very tough competition against other cities, could provide 40% or more of the capital cost.</p><p class="media-headline">
But that still leaves at least $5 billion to come from local taxpayers, along with annual operating costs estimated to start at about $50 million in 2023 and rise to $180 million by 2040 when the system would be more or less built out.</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><div class="rm-embed embed-media"><script>(function(t,e,s,n){var o,a,c;t.SMCX=t.SMCX||[],e.getElementById(n)||(o=e.getElementsByTagName(s),a=o[o.length-1],c=e.createElement(s),c.type="text/javascript",c.async=!0,c.id=n,c.src=["https:"===location.protocol?"https://":"http://","widget.surveymonkey.com/collect/website/js/tRaiETqnLgj758hTBazgd0uta6f37HVR_2F5DAnLDIgD5lvomg7wSDt4uQ9PsIz2Xx.js"].join(""),a.parentNode.insertBefore(c,a))})(window,document,"script","smcx-sdk");</script><a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com" style="font: 12px Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #999; text-decoration: none;"> Create your own user feedback survey </a></div><p><br/></p><p><strong>Changing referendum</strong></p><p>And that's where November comes in.</p><p>Capital Metro, even before the virus hit, was not in a position to contribute much to the plan's huge capital cost. The agency already spends on operations virtually all of the money it takes in each year from its maxed-out 1% sales tax, fares and federal grants. But the city, with the authority to raise its property tax rate, has more flexibility.</p><p>The emerging financial plan before the virus and the shutdown was to ask voters for a specific property tax increase—probably in the vicinity of 10 cents per $100 in assessed property value—and dedicate all of that money in perpetuity to a newly created animal called a "local government corporation." That added tax would raise more than $150 million a year initially, an amount that would grow with property valuations through the years and could be used both to build the project and then to fund much of the future operating costs.</p><p>The new mini-government would have a board formed by the city and Capital Metro, perhaps a small staff and consultants, and would design and construct the rail system and added bus lines. Those projects, once completed, would be handed back to Capital Metro to operate.</p><p>The present tumult has forced a second look at that financing plan as well, Adler said.</p><p>"That certainly hasn't been decided," he said. "There are people arguing for a hybrid approach" that might involve a bond election for the initial investment and a separate ballot question on the added property tax for the long term.</p><p>John Langmore, a former Capital Metro board member, is chairman of Transit for Austin, a nonprofit formed last year to do early "education" efforts on the Project Connect plan. The nonprofit before long will give way to a new political action committee, which will be able legally to raise money and overtly stump for the ballot proposal.</p><p>"Everyone is anxious about whether the politics might have changed" because of COVID-19, Langmore said last week. "I'm sure they <em>have</em> changed, but we don't know how. But that hasn't prevented us from wanting to move forward.</p><p>"None of the problems that generated the need for Project Connect have permanently gone away. They will all resurrect when the economy comes back."</p><p><em>Correction: The original version of this story reversed the Orange and Blue lines.</em></p>
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