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Everything we know about COVID-19 in Austin right now: hospital capacity, ICUs, fatalities, schools
09 July
(Austin Public Health)
To help make sense of the all information emerging about COVID-19 in Austin, we're answering a few big questions:
1. Why do I keep hearing about Austin's ICU capacity?
<div class="flourish-embed flourish-chart" data-src="visualisation/3127217" data-url="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/3127217/embed"><script src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.js"></script></div><p>Because we may not have enough of it.</p><p>ICU beds are Austin's "critical limited resource" and Austin is at risk of reaching capacity—and overwhelming the city's health care system—sooner than previously thought, Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers told Austin City Council on Thursday. <br><br>Dr. Meyers, a modeler at the University of Texas at Austin, said she and her team of researchers recently experienced "a fundamental shift" in their understanding of hospital capacity. ICU beds are filling up faster than regular hospital beds, making ICU capacity the most important metric to watch.</p><p>"It is very possible that we may hit our lower limit for ICU capacity soon," Dr. Meyers said, giving an estimate of early August.</p><p>Area hospitals report they have the beds and staff needed to treat up to 331 COVID patients in their ICUs. If they are able to access additional personnel—such as through contractors and the U.S. military—that capacity could increase to 474.</p><p>If the ICUs fill up, it could threaten the ability of the hospitals to care for COVID patients as well as patients with other medical issues.</p><p>The current state of ICUs:</p><ul><li>There are 149 COVID patients in Austin area ICUs as of Wednesday evening, and they account for about a third of the occupied beds.</li><li>Austin's ICUs are at about 85% occupancy, up from 80% last week, according to a Tuesday report from the Ascension Seton, Baylor Scott & White Health and St. David's HealthCare hospital systems.</li></ul><p>The continued influx of COVID patients is straining area hospitals, which are also facing requests to accept patients from other Texas cities, according to Austin-Travis County Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott.</p><p>"It is not normal operations," he said.</p><p>To meet the rising demand, hospitals will have to reassign non-ICU doctors to care for their patients, which means "a different standard of care than we're used to," Dr. Escott said.</p><p>In the worst-case scenario, patients will spill over into the Austin Convention Center, which could open as a field hospital for low-acuity patients as soon as July 20.</p>2. Is the COVID-19 fatality rate improving?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQ0NTg3My9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxOTQ3NzIxN30.wTIFalip3a_dj2_xbbzNCKH_-ngM4tkqb_mGQ3s0ER8/img.png?width=980" id="db25c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="85e039ae61eeebdf2b91a3f582088700" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>Yes, but with caveats.</p><p>Austin's COVID-19 <a href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/3121104/" target="_blank">fatality rate</a>—defined as reported deaths per confirmed cases—continues to drop, even as the local caseload and <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-hospitals" target="_self"><u>related hospitalizations increase</u></a>. But Dr. Escott cautions that it likely does not show the full picture.</p><p>Travis County has confirmed 13,161 cases as of Wednesday evening and reported 159 deaths, for a fatality rate of around 1.2%. This is down from <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/coronavirus-deaths-austin" target="_self"><u>1.8% on June 22</u></a> and 3.6% at the end of April.</p><p>However, many of the confirmed cases have been reported in the last two to three weeks, which means those patients have likely not yet required hospitalization—or died.</p><p>"The deaths that are going to happen for the people in the hospital just haven't happened yet," Dr. Meyers told the council Thursday.</p><p>There are some signs that the fatality rate is declining—at least to some degree—for two main reasons:</p><ul><li>Improved treatments—such as the antiviral drug remdesivir, steroids and convalescent plasma therapy.</li><li>An increasing number of cases among young people, who have a higher probability of recovering.</li></ul><p>But COVID-19 remains disproportionately fatal for certain groups.</p><ul><li>People over 60 account for 11% of confirmed cases but 85% of deaths.</li><li>Black residents, who make up 9% of Travis County's population, account for 6% of confirmed cases but 10% of reported deaths.</li><li>Latino residents—34% of the population—account for 52% of confirmed cases and 41% of deaths.</li></ul>3. Are we moving to Stage 5?
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQ0NjAzNy9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNTEwNTk5MX0.VDN5YmTKWAXjP37di8y2V9nHBJOuElRm7HWxqi593pU/img.png?width=980" id="ab95f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="654ed55191bb22d73a3257b8782a35e7" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>Not right now.</p><p>The five-stage chart created by Austin Public Health is based on the seven-day moving average of hospitalizations. Though Austin <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-hospitals" target="_blank">exceeded the threshold for Stage 5</a> this week, Escott recommended to the City Council that Austin stay at Stage 4—and the average actually<a href="https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/1402b112995148058174b309e7e3e2aa" target="_blank"> fell slightly on Thursday</a> evening.</p><p>Instead, Escott recommended a "darker shade of orange," that would look more like the restrictions that were in place during Phase 1 of the governor's reopening. That period in May allowed restaurants, for example, to <a href="https://austonia.com/Coronavirus/austin-restaurants-reopen-25" target="_blank">open at 25% capacity</a>, but nail salons and barber shops were closed.</p><p>The city, however, can't put those kinds of restrictions in place without the governor's permission.</p>4. What does this mean for Austin schools?
<p>In her presentation to the council, Dr. Meyers delivered projections about what may happen when Austin ISD begins its school year on Aug. 18.<br></p><p>Even if the city issues a 35-day shutdown order between now and then, modeling shows some students will arrive at school with COVID-19.</p><p>In the case of less severe restrictions, the number of infected students expected to arrive at schools next month is higher.</p><p>During the same meeting, Dr. Escott said schools could see COVID clusters—like those reported at nursing homes and construction sites.</p><p>"There shouldn't be an expectation that there will be a school without a cluster," he said.</p><p>Education Austin, a union that represents AISD teachers and staff, is pushing for online-only instruction and encouraging its 3,000 members to avoid campuses if the district doesn't change its plans.</p><p>"All signs point to disaster," ED President Ken Zarifis said during <a href="https://austonia.com/education/austin-schools-online" target="_self"><u>a press conference</u></a> Wednesday.</p>5. What is Austin City Council doing about this?
<p>Austin City Council unanimously approved on Thursday two ordinances that allow for stronger enforcement of existing COVID-19 restrictions:</p><ul><li>One allows civil penalties—including daily fines of up to $2,000—for people who violate masking orders and other rules set by APH to curb the spread of COVID-19.</li><li>The other allows the city to declare properties a public health nuisance if they do not do enough to slow the spread of COVID-19, including enforcing the state's mask mandate and limiting the number of individuals who gather or stand together to a total of 10 or fewer.</li></ul><p>Properties maintained by government entities, used as residences, or that provide medical services or childcare are excluded.</p><p>Mayor Steve Adler said he and Travis County Judge Sam Biscoe will be appealing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for state assistance to address the staffing shortages faced by area hospitals.</p>6. Is there any good news?
<p>Possibly.</p><p>There is some evidence that transmission of COVID-19 is slowing down in Austin, Dr. Meyers told the council. She attributed the change to policies implemented in late June, including the statewide mask mandate, and an increased culture of caution.</p><p>"It looks like we may have slowed things a little bit," she added.</p><p>But Dr. Meyers said that this is no reason to abandon precautions.</p><p>There is about a 10-day lag in the data she and her team use in their modeling, which means that the transmission rate could have changed.</p><p>"We don't know where we are today exactly," Dr. Meyers said.</p><p>The modeling also indicates that any slowdown that may be occurring is not at a high enough rate to avoid overwhelming hospitals, which could see ICUs reach capacity by early August.</p><p>"It is very, very uncertain," she said of any slowdown. "If anything, we should be reinforcing this culture of caution."</p><h5>Want to read more stories like this one? Start every day with a quick look at what's happening in Austin. Sign up for Austonia.com's free daily morning email.</h5>
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(Office of the governor)
Gov. Greg Abbott said on Friday that "the worst is yet to come" in the Texas COVID-19 surge. "If we do not slow the spread of COVID-19," Abbott said during a TV interview, "the next step would have to be a lockdown."
<p><a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/greg-abbott-shutdown-texas-mask-order/" target="_blank">The Texas Tribune reports</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Abbott has pushed that message repeatedly in television interviews this week. But he emphasized Friday that another shutdown was not imminent and he pointed to steps he has taken so far to scale back reopening in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus, including the mask order and a requirement that bars, once again, close <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/26/texas-bars-restaurants-coronavirus-greg-abbott/" target="_blank">their doors.</a> He has also tightened restaurant capacity limits."</p><p>More than 10,000 people in Texas <a href="https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f" target="_blank">are now hospitalized</a> with the coronavirus.</p>
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(Katharine Jose/Austonia)
Update 7/10 6:58:
The Austin Watershed Protection Department said in a statement that there is now some preliminary concern about algae found at Red Bud Isle yesterday, though so far results are not definitive.
<p>UT's laboratory "noted the presence, albeit low, of a cyanobacteria species of concern from the sample collected at Red Bud Isle," the statement says. "The species is undergoing further molecular identification, and toxin results are still forth coming."</p><p>The department is urging caution: "Conditions can change rapidly at a site. While we wait for test results, people should take extra care at Red Bud Isle."</p><p><strong>Original post:</strong><br/></p><p>As the <a href="https://austonia.com/city/austin-weather" target="_blank">summer heats up</a>, bringing with it ripe conditions for a harmful algae bloom, Austin officials said they have started tested local waterways and shared recommendations for how residents can keep their pets safe when going swimming. </p><p>Last year, at least five dogs <a href="https://austonia.com/city/blue-algae-austin" target="_blank">were killed by a deadly blue-green algae bloom</a> in Lady Bird Lake. </p><p>With help from UT researchers, the city took water and algae samples Thursday, <a href="https://mailchi.mp/austintexas.gov/increased-risk-of-harmful-algae-on-lady-bird-lake?e=995fbf6736" target="_blank">according to a Friday press release</a>, and should have the first updates about water quality next week. </p><p>Samples came from:</p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>Red Bud Isle</li><li>Vic Mathias Shores</li><li>Festival Beach </li></ul> <p>Another area, the mouth of Barton Creek, is also being monitored, but the city "did not observe any concerning algae," according to the press release. </p><p>Results from these samples will be listed on <a href="https://austintexas.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1861810ce1dca1a4c1673747c&id=26b3980d87&e=995fbf6736" target="_blank">AustinTexas.gov/algae</a>. </p><p>The website also lists symptoms to watch out for in pets after swimming, and asks that residents report their pets getting sick to 311. </p><p>Anyone who wants to take their dog swimming in Lady Bird Lake should avoid warm, stagnant water and areas with floating mats of algae, according to the city. Owners should also rinse their dogs after swimming in the lake.</p><p>If the city or UT researchers detect potentially harmful algae, updated guidance for keeping dogs safe, including any bans on dogs swimming in the lake, will be posted on that website.</p>
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Fifteen people set to work during the July 14 election, including two election judges, have quit due to fears about the coronavirus pandemic, the Travis County Clerk's office confirmed.
<p>The office has a backup plan in place and has created an on-call list for poll workers in case there are any dropouts, a spokesperson wrote in an email.</p><p>Other counties in Texas are seeing the same thing—<a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/09/texas-voting-coronavirus/" target="_blank">Bexar County is expected to close eight polling locations </a>due to lack of staff.</p><p>Despite—or perhaps because of—the pandemic, voters are turning out in record-breaking numbers for a primary runoff election, but they are <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/03/texas-mask-order-voting-chruches-greg-abbott/" target="_blank">not required by the governor to wear masks</a> at all times while doing so.</p><p>As of Thursday evening, 63,701 people had voted early and 15,801 had voted by mail-in ballot—for a total of about 10% of the county's registered voters. </p><p>This is already double the typical turnout for a primary runoff election, which County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir <a href="https://www.kxan.com/news/travis-county-has-record-breaking-early-voting-turnout-for-primary-runoff-election/" target="_blank"><u>said</u></a> is typically around 5%. </p><p>Early voting ends today at 7 p.m. Election Day is Tuesday, July 14.</p><p>Brian Smith, a professor of political science at St. Edward's University, told Austonia that generally speaking runoff elections see "low turnout, low mail-in ballot participation and low excitement."</p><p>He attributed turnout to urgency among voters and a high-profile runoff between Democrats to determine who will face off against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in November. </p><p>"This is going to be a learning experience for Texas because we don't know what the fall is going to hold," Smith said. </p>
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Fighting over child custody and visitation is painful under even the best of circumstances, but attorneys and parents say the coronavirus pandemic has brought more stress, more fear, and more "live ammunition" to the battlefield.
<p>That has certainly been true for divorced Austin dad, "M," who asked that his real name not be used to protect his son's privacy.</p><p>M dropped his preteen off at the boy's mother's house after a regularly scheduled visit in March. Then M didn't get to see his son again until Independence Day.</p><p>Instead of returning the son to his dad two weeks later, as agreed in a hard-fought custody order, M's ex-wife refused to release the child, who has a medical condition that puts him at risk if he catches COVID.</p><p>"She said, 'You can't see your kid because of COVID. I'm not going to let you have him at all," said M. "The pandemic helped her use his health against me."</p>
A high level of fear
<p>Austin family attorney Robert Luther said situations like M's have become a regular occurrence.<br></p><p>"There's a lot of acrimony out there, caused by the philosophical and political positions relative to the pandemic," said Luther. "Everybody's fear level is super high, or their defensiveness is super high. It's one or the other."</p><p>And if it was bad in the beginning, when canceled schools in March threw custody agreements into chaos, then it's even worse now with the latest surge in numbers, Luther said.</p><p>Arrangements between parents who disagree on how to handle the pandemic—or who just don't trust each other—were uncomfortable, but the parents had resigned themselves to it for a few months, he said.</p><p>Now trust is eroding, he said.</p><p>"This new level of long-term fear has affected a whole different round of people, I think, who thought they were being optimistic," he said. "And now being optimistic is really hard to do."</p>Help from the courts
<p>In April, the Texas Supreme Court ruled that— without hearings—custody agreements must be honored, regardless of pandemic orders or school calendars.<br></p><p>It helped M, whose relationship with his son had been relegated to texting and Zoom. In June, a judge threatened to hold his ex-wife in contempt if she tried it again, and said M could make up the lost time, according to court records.</p><p>The judge also directed him to have a COVID-19 test before another overnight visit with his son.</p>An uneasy arrangement
<p>Austin mom Jodi has been uncomfortable for months about sending her two young kids to spend time with her estranged husband, who she believes is too cavalier about the virus.<br></p><p>As the numbers have spiked, so have her fears. But there is no written visitation agreement, and the uneasy cooperation that allows them fairly equal time with the kids is precarious. A custody agreement is likely in the future, when a divorce gets filed, and it's vital to her that they stay on good terms.</p><p>"I don't agree with how he's handling it, but I don't want to fight," said Jodi, who also asked that her full name not be used to protect her children.</p>New lines of communication
<p>Some divorced parents have found a way through years of anger and hurt, finding that the pandemic has opened up new lines of communication that benefit the kids.<br></p><p>Anthony and My-Cherie Haley have worked hard to make things easy during this uncertain time, they said. A birthday party and a Pre-K graduation spent together with the kids during lockdown would have been unheard of in the five years since the divorce.</p><p>"It's not been bad for us, interestingly," Anthony Haley said. "All that's just been put aside, and we're just working together on all of it. It's the only way to make it through this."</p><p>Said My-Cherie Haley with a laugh: "Was it always hunky-dory? No. But we've been really flexible with each other because of this pandemic."</p><h5>Want to read more stories like this one? Start every day with a quick look at what's happening in Austin. Sign up for Austonia.com's free daily morning email.</h5><!-- Begin Mailchimp Signup Form -->
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The newest addition to the Austin Zoo is in need of a name, and for a $2 donation, you can pitch your own idea.
<p>The zoo posted about the new Texas Longhorn on its <a href="https://austinzoo.org/longhorn-ballot-submission/" target="_blank">website</a> and social media this week. Suggestions and donations will be accepted until 6 p.m. July 15 on the zoo's <a href="https://austinzoo.org/longhorn-ballot-submission/" target="_blank">online submission form</a>.</p><p>A panel of zoo staff members will decide on the winner.</p><p><br/></p><div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c5fcb906e47167e4dec3e59662263c2b" id="94d76"><blockquote class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-version="4" style=" background:#FFF; border:0;
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The Del Valle ISD school board approved an economic incentives agreement with Tesla, which has proposed to build a $1.1 billion Gigafactory in Southeast Travis County, at a meeting on July 9.
<p>Under the 10-year deal, Tesla will pay property taxes on only 20% of the factory's assessed value—a savings of around $50 million—to the school district. In exchange, the electric carmaker has promised 5,000 new jobs, most of which are middle-skill positions that do not require a college degree, and a fleet of workforce development programs. </p><p>Construction could begin as soon as this fall, according to Tesla's application for the incentives agreement. </p><p>Tesla is also negotiating a separate economic incentives agreement with Travis County, whose Commissioners Court is scheduled to vote on whether to approve the terms this Tuesday. </p><p>A Tesla representative <a href="https://austonia.com/tesla-austin-travis-county" target="_blank">said June 23</a> that Austin is at the top of its list but that economic incentives are required "to make the economics of a factory work."</p><p>Tulsa is <a href="https://austonia.com/future/tesla-tulsa" target="_blank">also courting</a> Tesla and hopes to be home to its next factory, which will produce <a href="https://austonia.com/future/tesla-cybertruck" target="_blank">its latest model, the Cybertruck pickup</a>, as well as a mid-size SUV called the Model Y.</p>
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